Down 27% In Last Year, Can Bentley Stock Deliver Better Returns in 2026?

Key Takeaways:

• AI Revolution: Engineering firms plan to quadruple AI spending over three years, creating new revenue streams for Bentley.
• Price Projection: Based on current execution, BSY stock could reach $42 by December 2027.
• Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 24% from the current price of $34.
• Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 12% growth over the next 1.9 years.

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Bentley Systems (BSY) delivered solid third-quarter 2025 results with annual recurring revenue growth of 10.5%, positioning the infrastructure software company to capitalize on surging demand for AI-powered engineering solutions.

CEO Nicholas Cumins highlighted robust adoption across global infrastructure markets, with particular strength in power grid modernization and mining exploration.

• The company reported a net revenue retention rate of 109%, driven by strong performance in its E365 consumption-based model.
• Engineering firms face a critical challenge: unprecedented infrastructure demand but chronic shortages of qualified engineers.
• Bentley’s software helps bridge this gap by improving productivity 15% to 25% on advanced projects.
• The bigger opportunity lies in AI transformation. According to an AEC Advisors survey presented during Bentley’s earnings call, engineering firms currently spend about 19 basis points of revenue on AI implementation—roughly 5% of their total technology budgets.
• Over the next three years, they plan to increase this to 71 basis points, nearly quadrupling their AI investment.
• This shift creates multiple revenue opportunities for Bentley. First, the company provides engineering context through application programming interfaces that validate AI-generated designs for structural integrity and safety.
• Second, Bentley’s infrastructure cloud platform ingests data from various file formats, making historical project information accessible for AI training while respecting intellectual property rights.
• At the ‘Year in Infrastructure’ conference, Bentley unveiled three AI-powered applications: OpenSite+ for site engineering, Substation+ for electrical substation infrastructure, and SYNCHRO+ for construction modeling. All feature Bentley Copilot, the company’s purpose-built AI assistant.
• The Resources sector led growth again this quarter, benefiting from improved mining exploration activity.
• Public works and utilities delivered another solid quarter, with Power Line Systems standing out due to global demand for grid resilience and expanded power generation to support data center construction.
• Geographically, the Asia-Pacific region performed strongly, led by India and Southeast Asia. The Americas posted solid growth driven by North America, while EMEA growth was paced by the Middle East. China remained soft at just 2% of total ARR, consistent with expectations.

Management expects permitting reform in both the U.S. and Europe to accelerate energy infrastructure and critical mineral projects, directly benefiting Bentley’s Power Line Systems and Seequent businesses.

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What the Model Says for Bentley Systems Stock

We analyzed Bentley’s position as the leading infrastructure engineering software platform during a period of AI-driven business model transformation.

The company benefits from structural tailwinds. Global infrastructure investment remains robust despite economic uncertainty, driven by climate adaptation needs, energy transition requirements, and resource security priorities.

Each country’s push for self-sufficiency requires infrastructure investment, expanding the addressable market.

Bentley’s consumption-based E365 model grows alongside customer project activity. Enterprise renewals continue to include floor-and-ceiling escalations averaging 10% annually, reflecting shared confidence in continued value delivery as AI augments traditional usage patterns.

The emerging API consumption model represents incremental upside. As engineering firms build AI agents, they’ll programmatically access Bentley’s simulation and analytics engines to provide engineering precision.

This consumption stream doesn’t have historical data, but it should grow materially over the forecast period.

Asset analytics represents another growth vector. Digital twins for infrastructure inspection, operations, and maintenance generate subscription revenue from both owner-operators and engineering firms that act as digital integrators.

Using a forecast of 10.4% annual revenue growth and a 35% operating margin, our model projects the stock price will rise to $42 in 1.9 years. This assumes a 25.6x price-to-earnings multiple.

That represents compression from Bentley’s historical P/E averages of 38.7x (one year) and 53.2x (three years). The lower multiple reflects near-term uncertainty about AI monetization timing and the gradual expansion of margins as the company invests in next-generation capabilities.

The real value lies in capturing the AI-enabled productivity transformation of infrastructure engineering while maintaining the highly predictable subscription revenue model that has driven consistent performance.

Our Valuation Assumptions

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Our Valuation Assumptions

TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.

Here’s what we used for BSY stock:

1. Revenue Growth: 10.4%

Bentley’s growth centers on expanding infrastructure demand and AI-driven productivity gains.

• The company delivered 10.5% constant-currency ARR growth in Q3, with net retention at 109%.
• Management sees continued momentum from global infrastructure investment, particularly in power grid expansion, mining, and climate adaptation projects.
• The SMB segment added 600+ new logos for the 15th consecutive quarter, with strong retention rates.

AI represents incremental growth beyond the core business. As engineering firms quadruple AI spending and Bentley monetizes API consumption alongside traditional attended usage, revenue growth should sustain at double-digit levels.

2. Operating margins: 35%

Bentley expanded adjusted operating margins by 60 basis points year-to-date to 30.2%, with full-year targets of 28.5%.

The company sees continued margin improvement through operational efficiency and scale benefits.

Internal AI adoption is improving productivity across sales, R&D, and support functions.

The shift from lower-margin professional services to higher-margin subscription revenue enhances the overall quality of earnings.

3. Exit P/E Multiple: 25.6x

The market values Bentley at 26.6x earnings.

We assume modest compression to 25.6x over our forecast period as the company transitions to AI-powered business models.

Near-term multiple pressure reflects execution risk around new monetization approaches and the time required to scale asset analytics to critical mass.

As Bentley demonstrates successful AI commercialization and sustains double-digit growth, the premium valuation should stabilize around these levels.

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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?

Infrastructure software faces technology transitions and customer adoption cycles. Here’s how Bentley stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2029:

• Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 8.6% and net income margins compress to 25.9%, investors still see a 24% total return (5.7% annually).
• Mid Case: With 9.5% growth and 27.5% margins, we expect a total return of 55% (11.9% annually).
• High Case: If AI acceleration drives 10.5% revenue growth while Bentley achieves 28.9% margins, returns could hit 88% total (17.6% annually).

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The range reflects execution on AI monetization, success in scaling asset analytics to critical mass, and the pace of global infrastructure investment.

In the worst case, API consumption lags expectations, or engineering firms build competing capabilities in-house.

In the best-case scenario, AI spending exceeds projections, and Bentley captures a disproportionate share through its platform approach and data stewardship principles.

How Much Upside Does Bentley Systems Stock Have From Here?

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All it takes is three simple inputs:

• Revenue Growth
• Operating Margins
• Exit P/E Multiple

If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!