Key Stats for Deckers Outdoor Stock
- Current Price: ~$107 (May 22, 2026)
- Full-Year Revenue: $5.47B, +10% YoY
- Full-Year Diluted EPS: $7.02, +11% YoY
- Q4 Revenue: $1.12B, +10% YoY
- Q4 Adjusted EPS: $0.96, beat Street estimate of $0.83
- FY2027 Revenue Guidance: $5.86B–$5.91B
- FY2027 EPS Guidance: $7.30–$7.45
- TIKR Model Price Target: ~$161
- Implied Upside: +51%
HOKA Posts Its Largest Quarter Ever as Deckers Closes a Record Fiscal Year With Both Brands Ahead of Expectations
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) reported Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue of $1.12B, a 10% increase versus the prior year, beating Street estimates of $1.09B and closing another record year for the company.
HOKA delivered $671M in Q4 revenue, the largest quarter in the brand’s history, representing a 15% increase over the prior year period.
UGG contributed $409M in Q4, a 9% gain, driven by extended selling of fall products primarily through the direct-to-consumer channel.
DTC was the fastest-growing channel in the quarter at 18% growth, with wholesale growing 13%.
Q4 gross margin came in at 57.6%, up 90 basis points versus the prior year, despite absorbing a net tariff headwind, as Steve Fasching, Chief Financial Officer, stated on the Q4 earnings call: “Gross margin was well above our implied fourth quarter expectations, primarily due to higher full price selling, greater freight savings and a slightly larger benefit from product mix favorability.”
For the full fiscal year, Deckers Outdoor stock delivered record revenue of $5.47B, up 10%, with HOKA adding $354M to reach $2.59B and UGG adding $207M to reach $2.74B.
Full-year gross margin was 57.7%, down 20 basis points versus last year, with tariffs accounting for approximately 80 basis points of pressure, offset by roughly 60 basis points of favorable product mix and lower freight costs.
Full-year operating margin held at 23.1%, above guidance, with SG&A at 34.6% of revenue as investment spend across marketing, headcount, and technology came in largely as planned.
The full year closed with diluted EPS of $7.02, up 11% versus last year’s $6.33, driven by record profitability and the company’s highest annual share repurchase ever at $1.08B.
Deckers Outdoor stock ended the fiscal year with $1.9B in cash and equivalents, inventory down 2% year over year to $487M, and return on invested capital above 35% for the third consecutive year.
On the tariff front, Fasching noted the company paid approximately $120M under IEEPA rates already absorbed into inventory, and while refunds have been filed, FY2027 guidance does not assume any refund amount will be recovered.
TIKR’s $161 Target on Deckers Outdoor Stock Requires the Multi-Year Framework to Hold Where Margins Are Already Under Pressure
TIKR’s valuation model on Deckers Outdoor stock prices the mid-case at $161, representing a potential total return of 51% over 5 years at an annualized rate of 9% from the current price of ~$107, as attributed to TIKR.
The mid-case assumes revenue growing at a 5.7% CAGR through fiscal 2036, a net income margin of 17%, EPS growing at 6.5% annually, and a modest P/E expansion of 0.3% per year, producing a forecast stock price of ~$189 and an IRR of 6.7%.
The low case at $148 and a 3.8% IRR reflects the scenario in which HOKA and UGG growth moderates toward the lower bound of guidance: revenue CAGR of 5.1%, net income margin compressing to 16%, and continued P/E multiple contraction of nearly 1% per year. For Deckers Outdoor stock, this is the path where FY2027’s gross margin step-down to approximately 56.5%, driven by higher freight costs and upgraded material inputs, persists rather than reverses.
The high case at $235 and a 9.3% IRR requires the multi-year framework Stefano Caroti, President and Chief Executive Officer, outlined on the Q4 earnings call to deliver in full: revenue CAGR of 6.2%, net income margins expanding to 18%, EPS growing at 7.8% annually, and P/E multiple expansion of 1.4% per year.
HOKA achieving low double-digit growth annually through fiscal 2030 while UGG grows mid-single digits, both at industry-leading full-price sell-through, is the specific operating condition that would get Deckers Outdoor stock to that outcome.
The gap between the low and high scenario is not wide in revenue assumptions, approximately 1 percentage point separating 5.1% from 6.2% CAGR.
The real divergence lives in the margin line and multiple, as a company holding 57%+ gross margins while absorbing tariff costs and reinvesting heavily in DTC, technology, and international store openings supports expansion; one where those investments dilute margins without the corresponding brand heat to recoup them does not.
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