Key Stats for SOFI Stock
- Past week’s performance: Consolidating
- 52-week range: $13 to $33
- Valuation model target price: $27
- Implied upside: +70% over 2.6 years
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What Happened?
SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) was essentially flat this week, edging down 0.6%. But the stock has fallen over 43% from its December 2025 public offering price of $27.50. That longer-term decline is the more important context for investors evaluating the stock today.
First-quarter results were strong. Revenue rose 43% year over year to $1.1 billion, beating estimates. Net income more than doubled to $167 million. But management left its full-year 2026 guidance unchanged. That disappointed investors who expected an upgrade after the earnings beat, and shares fell on April 29.
Sentiment has also been pressured by a short seller report. Muddy Waters disclosed a short position on March 18. SoFi disputed the report and said it was considering legal action. CEO Anthony Noto responded by purchasing shares on the open market in March and again on May 9 and May 12. The insider buying signals conviction at current prices.
Going forward, SOFI stock will be driven by whether management upgrades its 2026 guidance and how quickly the Muddy Waters controversy fades.
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Is SOFI Stock Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through 12/31/28, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): 10.6%
- Operating Margins: 20.8%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 24.4x
Under these assumptions, SOFI stock has a target price of $27, implying a total return of +70% or 22.5% annualized through December 31, 2028.
SOFI closed at $16 this week, near its 52-week low of $13. The street consensus target of $21 implies substantial additional upside from current levels. The valuation model uses a 26.2% operating margin assumption, a significant improvement from current levels. But SoFi’s 83.5% gross margin provides a strong foundation for that expansion.
The exit P/E of 24.3x compares to the current NTM P/E of approximately 24x. So the modeled return is driven entirely by earnings growth rather than multiple expansion. That is a conservative framing of the investment case, and it does not require the stock to re-rate.
At 22.5% annualized over 2.6 years, the modeled return well exceeds the 10% threshold. That places SOFI in the attractively undervalued category under these assumptions. The stock currently trades 43% below the December offering price, which sophisticated institutional investors underwrote at $27.
What’s Driving SOFI Stock Going Forward?
Guidance revision is the most immediate catalyst. Investors sold after Q1 earnings because management held its full-year 2026 forecast. But revenue rose 43% in Q1, which makes the case for unchanged guidance increasingly difficult to defend. A guidance upgrade at Q2 earnings, expected July 27, could drive a significant recovery in the stock.
The loan platform business is a structural growth driver. SoFi expanded its loan platform partnerships by over $3.6 billion in March. That off-balance-sheet model reduces capital intensity while growing fee revenue. And it diversifies the company beyond its bank charter.
The Muddy Waters short report remains the principal sentiment overhang. The June 17 annual shareholder meeting and the ongoing legal review of those claims will be closely watched. The CEO buying at these price levels is an encouraging signal. And cross-sell rates across SoFi’s bank, invest, and lending products support the long-term revenue growth case.
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Should You Invest in SoFi Technologies?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up SOFI, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track SOFI alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
