Key Stats for Sherwin-Williams Stock
- 52-Week Range: $294 to $380
- Current Price: $309
- Street Mean Target: $381
- Street High Target: $420
- Analyst Consensus: 11 Buys / 3 Outperforms / 10 Holds
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $450
Sherwin-Williams Beats Q1 Estimates and Holds the Line on 2026 Guidance Despite a Rising Cost Cycle
Sherwin-Williams (SHW), the world’s largest paint and coatings manufacturer, reported Q1 2026 results on April 28 that beat analyst estimates on both revenue and adjusted EPS while reaffirming full-year earnings guidance against a sharply deteriorating raw material backdrop tied to the Middle East conflict.
Consolidated net sales rose 6.8% to $5.67 billion, topping the Street consensus of $5.56 billion.
Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $2.35, ahead of the $2.26 analyst estimate, with diluted GAAP EPS of $2.15.
The beat came across all three reportable segments, including Paint Stores Group posting mid-single-digit growth, Consumer Brands delivering 19.2% sales growth year over year on the back of the October 2025 Suvinil acquisition, and Performance Coatings growing slightly above the mid-single-digit range expected.
CEO Heidi Petz framed the result in Q1 2026 earnings call as the product of share gain discipline, not a market recovery: “We know we are operating in a share gain environment, and we will continue to be very aggressive here.”
The Q1 gross margin expanded 90 basis points year over year, the 14th time in the last 15 quarters SHW has delivered gross margin expansion.
The company returned approximately $773 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in the quarter alone, including repurchases of 1.6 million shares at an average price of around $360.
The complication came in the forward guidance.
The Middle East conflict has driven propylene prices up a forecasted 50% through the rest of 2026, and SHW raised its full-year raw material inflation outlook to low to mid-single digits.
The company’s January 1 price increase is already realizing better than expected, and management confirmed targeted incremental price actions are underway across industrial customers in Asia Pacific and EMEA, where cost pressure is hitting first.
Petz was explicit on further pricing: “If we need to go again, we will go again.”
Full-year 2026 net sales guidance of up low to mid-single digits and adjusted diluted EPS of $11.50 to $11.90 were both reaffirmed.
Wall Street Stays Largely Bullish on SHW Stock Despite the Cost Headwind
Wall Street’s take on Sherwin-Williams stock is mixed but majority positive, with 11 buys, 3 outperforms, and 10 holds against the current price of around $309.
The Street mean target sits at around $381 and the high target reaches around $420, implying around 23% and around 36% potential upside respectively from current levels.
The thesis driving the buy side is a share gain compounder with structural pricing power that is executing ahead of its market in every segment, even with the underlying demand environment broadly weak.
SHW’s EPS normalized for Q1 came in at $2.35, up 4.4% year over year, and Wall Street projects Q2 2026 EPS Normalized of around $3.50, a 3.6% increase year over year.
The metric most directly relevant to the thesis is revenue growth: consensus projects around $6.60 billion in Q2 2026 revenue, a 4.6% increase year over year, consistent with SHW’s own mid-single-digit growth guidance for the quarter.
The structural risk the hold-side is pricing is visible: propylene costs could inflate SHW’s raw material basket materially in the back half of 2026, and full-year volume guidance shifted from low-single-digit growth to low-single-digit decline as management baked in demand softness linked to the inflation shock.
CFO Ben Meisenzahl acknowledged the math directly: “You have to expect that the first half of this year, you don’t see it as much. You’re going to see it heavier in the second half.”
At around $309, Sherwin-Williams stock trades approximately 19% below its 52-week high of $380, yet the Street mean target of around $381 has not materially deteriorated despite the cost revision.
Is SHW Stock Undervalued at $309? TIKR’s $450 Target and the Tension Between Pricing Power and Propylene
TIKR’s base case values Sherwin-Williams at approximately $450 by December 2030, implying around 46% total return from the current price of around $309, or roughly 8% annualized over the next 4.6 years.
The mid case assumes around 4% revenue CAGR, around 13% net income margins, and around 5% EPS growth CAGR through 2035, with the stock reaching around $525 by December 2034 under that scenario for an IRR of around 6%.
The key tension in the model is the P/E multiple trajectory: the mid case assumes a near-flat multiple change over the forecast period, which means the return is earnings-driven rather than re-rating-driven.
If raw material inflation stays within the guided range and pricing execution holds, the low case scenario prices SHW at around $429 by 2035, implying around 39% total return and an IRR of around 4%.
If the cost environment stabilizes and the housing recovery arrives within the forecast window, the high case reaches around $623 by 2035, an IRR of around 9% and roughly 102% total return from current levels.
The verdict: at around $309, Sherwin-Williams stock is undervalued against TIKR’s base case, with the multiple already compressed and the earnings case resting on the pricing power SHW has demonstrated across 14 consecutive quarters of gross margin expansion.
Is Sherwin-Williams stock a buy right now?
The majority of analysts covering SHW rate it a buy or outperform, with a Street mean target of around $381 representing around 23% upside from the current price of around $309.
TIKR’s base case values the stock at approximately $450 by December 2030.
The primary variable to watch is whether propylene cost inflation in the second half of 2026 stays within the low to mid-single-digit basket increase management has guided.
What do analysts say about SHW stock?
The current analyst breakdown is 11 buys, 3 outperforms, and 10 holds, with no sell ratings. The Street mean target is around $381 and the high target is around $420.
Most bullish analysts cite SHW’s consistent share gain execution and gross margin expansion streak as the core reasons to hold through the current cost headwind.
Should You Invest in The Sherwin-Williams Company?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up The Sherwin-Williams Company stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track The Sherwin-Williams Company alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze SHW stock on TIKR for Free →
