Key Stats for CAVA Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 5%
- 52-Week Range: $43 to $99
- Valuation Model Target Price: Around $120
- Implied Upside: Around 45%
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What Happened?
CAVA Group, Inc. stock rose about 5% this week, finishing near $80 per share as investors rewarded one of the cleaner growth stories in restaurants. The rally stood out because CAVA is still growing traffic, opening new locations, and raising guidance while restaurant peers such as Chipotle, Sweetgreen, Wingstop, and Shake Shack face more scrutiny around consumer spending, traffic trends, and margin pressure.
The stock moved higher because CAVA’s Q1 report showed that customers are still visiting more often, giving investors confidence that growth is coming from real traffic, not just higher menu prices. CAVA revenue grew 32% year over year to $434 million, same-restaurant sales increased 10%, and guest traffic rose 7%. The company also opened 20 net new restaurants, ended the quarter with 459 locations, and generated adjusted EBITDA of $62 million, up 38% year over year.
This week’s earnings call added more detail behind the move. CEO Brett Schulman said CAVA delivered “exceptional results,” helped by disciplined pricing, new restaurant productivity above 100%, and broad demand across regions and income groups.
Management also raised full-year 2026 guidance to 75 to 77 net new restaurants, around 5% to 7% same-restaurant sales growth, and adjusted EBITDA of $181 million to $191 million, giving investors a clearer growth path for the rest of the year.
Analyst actions reinforced the advance. Telsey Advisory Group raised its price target to $95 from $92 and kept an Outperform rating, RBC Capital raised its target to $105 from $100, Piper Sandler lifted its target to $92 from $85, Stifel raised its target to $105 from $90, Baird increased its target to $98 from $88, and Barclays raised its target to $74 from $70.
Those updates helped support the stock because analysts raised targets after stronger traffic, better sales growth, and higher guidance, making this week’s move more about improving fundamentals than a short-term earnings pop.
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Is CAVA Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): Around 23%
- Operating Margins: Around 6%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 100x
CAVA’s valuation still depends on fast restaurant expansion, but the stronger part of the story is that new locations are opening into a brand with real traffic momentum, not just higher menu pricing.
The revenue growth assumption depends mainly on CAVA opening new restaurants, keeping same-restaurant sales positive, and building awareness for Mediterranean fast casual in newer markets.
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The margin assumption depends on whether CAVA can protect restaurant-level profitability while absorbing higher labor, food, occupancy, energy, and salmon-related costs.
Same-restaurant sales growth matters because stronger traffic gives CAVA more operating leverage, helping each location spread fixed costs over more orders and turn higher sales into stronger profit growth.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of around $120, implying about 45% upside over roughly 3 years, meaning CAVA appears undervalued if it continues converting restaurant growth, traffic gains, and margin discipline into stronger earnings.
How Much Upside Does CAVA Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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