Key Takeaways
- B. Riley cut its IonQ price target to $75 from $100 on November 2 and kept its Buy rating. The new target still implies 162% upside.
- IonQ has nearly doubled its share count since the end of 2024, paying for deals and cash in stock.
- The $75 target works out to 47x forward sales, below IonQ’s five-year average, but a big piece of those sales now comes from a chip foundry.
- B. Riley’s call misses how much of IonQ’s growth now comes from the foundry and from new shares, and the November 5 report is the first check.
IonQ (IONQ) has lost 54% over the past year. On November 2, B. Riley lowered its price target to $75 from $100 and kept its Buy rating, which takes it back to where it stood before a September 2025 raise. That still implies 162% upside from $28.58.
IonQ Paid for Its Growth in Stock
Second-quarter revenue rose 287% from a year earlier to $80.1 million. IonQ raised its 2026 guidance to $280 million to $290 million in August, then to $450 million to $460 million in September after folding in SkyWater, the chip foundry it bought on July 31.
But IonQ has paid for that growth with shares. Its share count nearly doubled, from 221.92 million at the end of 2024 to 429.41 million after its October stock sale. On October 12, it announced it would buy cybersecurity company Elisity in an all-stock deal worth up to $1.3 billion. Two days later, it priced a $2.0 billion stock sale at $40 a share.
The stock now trades well below that $40. And when the Elisity deal closes, expected this quarter, it adds 23.2 million to 34.8 million more shares.
Does B. Riley’s $75 Add Up for IonQ?
Even after the cut, $75 sits 17% above the Street’s consensus target of $64. That average has barely moved. It was $64 on October 29, against $68 a year earlier, even as the stock lost about half its value:
Analysts expect revenue to climb from $130 million in 2025 to $455 million this year, the midpoint of IonQ’s guidance, and $1.04 billion in 2028:
TIKR Tracks 14 Analysts on IonQ. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on IonQ, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See IonQ’s Analyst Ratings
A big piece of that growth comes from SkyWater, which adds about $170 million to this year’s guidance. When BofA initiated coverage in September, it valued foundry revenue at 2x sales, against 7x for quantum.
B. Riley’s $75 works out to 47x forward sales. That’s below IonQ’s one-year average of 69x and its five-year average of 125x. The stock’s forward price/sales was 19x at the October 30 close, the lowest in five years:
Those averages come from before IonQ owned a foundry. At 47x, investors would be paying a quantum price for sales that now include foundry work.
Why I’d Want IonQ’s Quantum Numbers First
B. Riley’s $75 misses how much of IonQ’s growth now comes from a foundry and from new shares. Organic revenue grew 132% in the second quarter, which is impressive. But until IonQ reports that business apart from SkyWater, I wouldn’t pay anything close to 47x sales for it.
The bull case isn’t empty. Even $75 sits below both of IonQ’s historical averages, revenue estimates keep rising, and IonQ had $3.0 billion in cash and investments at June 30, before paying for SkyWater, then raised $2.0 billion more in October. The November 5 third-quarter report, the first with SkyWater included, is the first check. Organic growth near the 100% management expects for 2026 would make B. Riley’s call look a lot more reasonable.
So what is IonQ stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what IonQ could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
