Key Stats for McDonald Stock
- Current Price: $258.12
- Target Price (Mid): ~$393
- Street Target: ~$292
- Potential Total Return: ~52%
- Annualized IRR: ~11% / year
What Happened?
McDonald’s (MCD) said in late October that its FIFA World Cup sponsorship, which began in 1994, will end with the current agreement. On November 2, Placer.ai estimated that U.S. visits fell 4.6% in the third quarter, even as October promotions drove the chain’s busiest weeks of 2026. Shares closed at $258.12 on October 30, down 15.5% this year, with third-quarter results expected before the open on November 4.
McDonald’s Is Trading the World Cup for Its Own IP
At the September 23 Investor Day, Global Chief Marketing Officer Morgan Flatley said campaigns “will be built on McDonald’s collection of iconic IP, not someone else’s,” and that the company is “roughly doubling our investment in longer-running baseline building programs” while running fewer short-term promotions. She pointed to reach McDonald’s already owns: about 40% of positive social mentions among leading quick-service brands, more than its next three competitors combined. The app is the other owned channel: nearly 220 million 90-day active loyalty members, who visit 2.5 times as often as nonmembers, plus roughly 150 million infrequent members who haven’t visited in a few months. Partner perks coming to the U.S. this year, such as Uber ride credits and Disney+ subscriptions, are meant to bring them back.
The World Cup was a partner’s property, concentrated into a few weeks every four years. McDonald’s ran its biggest World Cup campaign this summer, and Global CFO Ian Borden said on the second-quarter call that it “underperformed versus our expectations.”
Asked whether fewer, larger campaigns raise the risk of a miss, Chairman and CEO Chris Kempczinski said leaning on taste and quality makes McDonald’s “a little bit less dependent on sort of do you have the right movie property this month” and would “derisk the marketing calendar.” The approach is also more efficient: Manuel Steijaert, President of International Operated Markets, said the Menu Heist campaign used around 10 major partners instead of the 40 that market-by-market execution would traditionally have used.
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October’s Busiest Weeks Came From Short-Term Promotions
Placer.ai’s estimates, drawn from a device panel rather than company data, show visits below year-ago levels every month since March, as gas prices passed $4 a gallon. MONOPOLY returned on October 6, and by the week Boo Buckets arrived on October 20, traffic ran 7.2% above the year-to-date weekly average. Visits still trailed the same weeks of 2025, when MONOPOLY came back after nearly a decade away.
Both are recurring McDonald’s promotions, and MONOPOLY offered bonus plays on app orders, a nudge toward the loyalty program that Kempczinski said is “about 30% of sales.” They are also limited-time offers, the kind of short-term campaign Flatley plans to run less of. October shows McDonald’s can still draw crowds, not yet the steady baseline growth the new marketing model promises.
Wall Street is not pricing in a quick fix. On October 30, Mizuho cut its target to $260 from $290, kept a Neutral rating, and said it expects U.S. comparable sales to fall 0.5% in the third quarter, lowering its fourth-quarter estimate to flat. The same day, a federal judge let a proposed class action over the McRib’s ingredients proceed. The allegations are unproven, and McDonald’s said in January that the suit distorts the facts.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $258.12
- Target Price (Mid): ~$393
- Potential Total Return: ~52%
- Annualized IRR: ~11% / year
The mid case is the model’s central scenario. Its long-range assumptions, which run through 2035, have revenue growing around 4% a year and the net income margin reaching around 38%, up from 32.6% over the past year. That lifts EPS about 8% a year while the P/E slips about 2% a year, so the return rests on margins, not a higher multiple. The main risk is U.S. traffic staying negative once October’s promotions fade. Upside comes if longer-running campaigns hold visits up without the World Cup.
Conclusion
The November 4 report covers July through September, before the FIFA decision, so October will show up only in management’s comments. U.S. comparable sales better than Mizuho’s −0.5% estimate, plus evidence that October held up against 2025’s MONOPOLY return, would support the shift. A deeper U.S. decline would leave the new marketing plan with more to prove in 2027.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
