Key Stats for Copart Stock
- 52-Week Range: $32 to $54
- Current Price: $34
- Street Mean Target: $41
- Street High Target: $55
- Analyst Consensus: 7 Buys / 6 Holds / 1 Sell
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $55
Copart Posts Q3 Beat as Record ASPs Mask the Volume Story Everyone Is Watching
Copart (CPRT), the world’s largest online salvage vehicle auctioneer, reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of around $1.24 billion on May 21, beating the Street estimate of around $1.20 billion by roughly 3.5%, even as U.S. insurance unit volumes fell 4.2% year-over-year.
EPS came in at $0.43 per diluted share, ahead of the $0.41 consensus, up 2.4% from $0.42 in the same quarter last year.
The headline unit decline obscures what actually happened at the auction level: global average selling prices rose 4.6%, and U.S. insurance ASPs increased 4.1%, reaching a seasonally adjusted all-time record high for a fiscal third quarter.
CEO Jeff Liaw was direct about the source of that pricing power on the Q3 earnings call: “Today, for U.S. insurance sellers at Copart, the mix of pure sale units is at all-time highs. We estimate that our pure sale insurance volume is literally an order of magnitude higher than what is available at other similar platforms.”
Pure sale units, meaning auctions with no reserve price, are the clearest vote of confidence an insurance carrier can cast in Copart’s marketplace, and that mix has never been higher.
The volume softness itself is a well-understood cyclical dynamic. Earned car years declined 4% year-over-year in the fourth calendar quarter of 2025, while vehicles in operation grew 1.4%, a divergence Liaw attributed directly to consumers reducing coverage in response to rising premiums, a pattern with a historical tendency to reverse.
Meanwhile, total loss frequency for Q1 calendar 2026 reached 23.6%, nearly 5 full percentage points above where it stood four years ago, a structural tailwind that Copart has actively helped create by improving the economics of the total loss pathway for its insurance clients.
Internationally, the story is even cleaner: total units sold rose 5.9%, international revenue grew 14.1% (or around 8% excluding currency), and operating income for the international segment reached around $74 million at a 31.5% operating margin.
CFO Leah Stearns noted that free cash flow has increased 12% year-to-date, and Copart ended the quarter with around $5.5 billion in liquidity, including around $4.2 billion in cash and equivalents, with zero debt.
Fiscal year-to-date, the company repurchased over 43.4 million shares for over $1.6 billion, a buyback program that added to the EPS beat by reducing the share count.
What Wall Street Thinks About CPRT After Q3
The Street remains constructive on Copart stock, with 7 buy-rated analysts against 6 holds and 1 sell, and a mean price target of around $46 representing roughly 39% implied upside from the current price near $33.
Jefferies cut its target to around $45 from around $47 following the print, a modest trim that kept its buy-equivalent rating intact, consistent with the broader pattern of analysts reducing numbers at the margin while maintaining directional conviction.
Revenue beat the consensus by roughly 3.5%, EBIT beat by around 4%, and adjusted EPS beat by around 6%, a clean three-line beat that left no ambiguity about execution quality in the quarter.
The metric that anchors the forward earnings case is CFO: the company generated around $0.58 per share in operating cash flow in Q3 against the $0.48 estimate, beating by roughly 22%, a signal that the P&L beat was backed by real cash conversion and not a timing artifact.
CAPEX came in at around $0.08 per share versus the $0.18 estimate, roughly 55% below Street expectations, pointing to disciplined capital deployment even as the company continues investing in land, technology, and the domestic long-haul delivery product it launched this year.
The forward earnings case rests on one central question: whether cyclical insurance volume weakness, driven by consumer pullback on coverage, resolves before the structural driver of total loss frequency erodes. Liaw noted that “these trends tend to have been cyclical historically, and we have observed moderation in some of these trends among large U.S. insurance carriers in recent quarters,” which is the softest language available for saying the bottom is forming.
TIKR’s NTM P/E chart shows the current multiple at 20.67x, a level the stock has never previously sustained — the historical low across the entire measurement period is 20.24x, meaning CPRT could be trading within a rounding error of its cheapest recorded valuation.
At 31x historical mean and a Street consensus that still prices $46, the market is discounting the business as though the cyclical volume headwind is permanent. The data does not support that read.
CPRT at 10-Year Valuation Lows: What the P/E Chart Says About the Mispricing
According to TIKR’s NTM P/E chart for Copart stock, the current forward earnings multiple sits at around 21x, against a historical mean of 31x over the measurement period and a peak of 40x.
That gap, around 10 multiple points below the long-run average, represents the market pricing in a structural deterioration in the insurance claims cycle that the company’s own operating data does not support.
TIKR’s base case values Copart at around $55 by July 2030, implying around 61% total return from the current price near $33, or roughly 12% annualized over the next four-plus years.
If volume recovery arrives alongside continued ASP gains and international acceleration, the TIKR model points to a stock price of around $67 by July 2034, a total return of around 98% and an IRR of around 9% annualized.
If the volume headwinds persist longer than expected and margin expansion stalls at current levels, the low case still produces a stock price of around $53 by July 2034, roughly 58% above today’s price, with an annualized return of around 6%.
If claims frequency recovers and total loss frequency continues its multi-year climb, the high case reaches around $83 by July 2034, a total return of around 145% and an IRR of around 12% annualized.
In every scenario the TIKR model runs, CPRT produces a positive return from today’s price. At around 21x NTM earnings against a 31x historical mean, Copart stock is undervalued by the measure that has tracked this business most consistently over the past decade.
Is Copart Stock a Buy Right Now?
TIKR’s model puts a mid-case target of around $55 by July 2030, implying around 61% total return from the current price near $33.
With 7 buy ratings on the Street, a mean target of around $46, and the NTM P/E sitting at around 21x against a 31x historical mean, the data supports a buy case.
The key variable is the pace of insurance volume recovery, which Copart management described as showing early signs of moderation in Q3.
What Do Analysts Say About CPRT?
The current analyst consensus on Copart stock is 7 buys against 6 holds and 1 sell, with a mean price target of around $46.
That target implies roughly 39% upside from the current price near $33.
Jefferies reduced its target to around $45 after Q3 but maintained a constructive rating, reflecting the broader Street posture: trimming numbers while keeping directional conviction intact.
Should You Invest in Copart, Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Copart, Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Copart, Inc. alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze CPRT stock on TIKR for Free →
