Key Takeaways:
- The “Everything Exchange”: Coinbase is no longer just for crypto; the company has launched stock trading, derivatives, and prediction markets, aiming to manage a user’s “entire financial life”.
- Explosive Growth: Financials are surging, with LTM Revenue up 115% and Operating Income skyrocketing 1,257% year-over-year.
- The Valuation Gap: While Wall Street analysts aggressively predict the stock will hit $342 in just 12 months, the valuation model takes a more conservative view, seeing that price as a 2029 target.
- Solid Returns: Even with this conservative timeline, the model implies a solid 11% annualized return from the current price of $227.
Coinbase (COIN) is executing one of the most ambitious pivots in fintech history.
CEO Brian Armstrong recently unveiled the “Everything Exchange,” a strategy to expand beyond simple crypto trading into stocks, prediction markets, and derivatives.
The goal is to become the “primary financial account” for the future economy, where users can trade equities, hedge with futures, and spend via the Coinbase Card all in one app.
The numbers back up the narrative.
In the last twelve months, Total Revenue hit $7.37 billion, growing 115% year-over-year.
Even more impressive is the profitability turnover.
Operating Income swung from a massive loss in 2022 to a robust $2.25 billion profit over the last year, proving the immense operating leverage in their business model.
Yet, the stock trades at $227, leaving investors to wonder if the rally has legs.
With new revenue streams from the “Coinbase One” subscription and the massive “Base” blockchain ecosystem coming online, is the market sleeping on the next leg of growth?
What the Model Says for COIN Stock
This analysis evaluates Coinbase’s potential through 2029, factoring in the successful rollout of its new asset classes.
The model signals a “Buy.”
Using a forecast of 11.7% Revenue Growth (CAGR) and 23.1% Net Income Margins, the model points to a target price of $341 by the end of 2029.
This implies a 10.9% annualized return from today’s levels.
It is worth noting that this is a conservative view compared to the Street.
The average street target from Wall Street analysts is $342, but they expect the stock to hit that level in 2026, not 2029.
If analysts are right and the stock hits that target in one year instead of four, the returns would be significantly higher.
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for COIN stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 11.7%
The “crypto winter” is over, and the “utility phase” has begun.
Coinbase is diversifying its revenue away from volatile trading fees.
New initiatives like the “Coinbase Developer Platform” (Crypto-as-a-Service) and the expansion into regulated derivatives in the U.S. provide steady, recurring growth engines.
Management also highlighted that “Coinbase One” subscriptions are growing, with users earning 4% on their Bitcoin spend, creating a sticky ecosystem.
The model forecasts a sustainable 11.7% CAGR through 2029, driven by these new product lines stacking on top of the core trading business.
2. Operating Margins: 23.1% (Net)
Coinbase has become a cash flow machine.
Gross Margins remain elite at 84.8%, giving them plenty of room to invest while staying profitable.
The company has disciplined its expense base, with General & Administrative expenses stabilizing while revenue soared.
The model assumes Net Income Margins will settle at 23.1%, reflecting the high-margin nature of their software and custody services.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 35.7x
Coinbase currently trades at a forward P/E of roughly 40x, which aligns with high-growth fintech peers.
The model assumes an exit multiple of 35.7x.
This is a premium multiple, but it is justified by Coinbase’s dominant position as the “gatekeeper” of the crypto economy and its high barriers to regulatory entry.
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
The risk/reward profile appears favorable, with the “Base Case” offering double-digit annual returns.
- Low Case: If the “Everything Exchange” fails to gain traction or regulation tightens, the model points to a price of $264, which is still 16% higher than today’s price.
- Mid Case: If the company executes on its roadmap, the model points to a 50% total return by 2029.
- High Case: If a new crypto bull market accelerates trading volumes significantly, the stock could surge to $416, delivering an 83% total return.
See what analysts forecast for the next 5 years for COIN stock (Free with TIKR) >>>
How Much Upside Does COIN Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
