Key Takeaways
- Circle Internet Group shares have lost 34% over the past year, and Needham just raised its price target to $134, 56% above the last close.
- Lower interest rates have squeezed Circle’s reserve income, which grew 5% in the second quarter even though average USDC in circulation grew 25%.
- Analysts’ 2026 earnings estimates have risen over the past 90 days, but the Street’s average target of $107 is well below Needham’s.
- Needham’s target implies a 107x forward P/E, well above the stock’s one-year average of 76x, so the call looks plausible but stretched.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) has lost 34% over the past year, closing at $85.87 on Oct. 20. On Oct. 21, Needham raised its price target to $134 from $130 and kept its Buy rating, which points to 48% upside.
Falling rates take a bite
Circle closed at a peak of $143.29 on Oct. 27, 2025, and bottomed at $50.23 on Feb. 5, 2026. It’s bounced since, but its second-quarter results on Aug. 5 show what’s still weighing on it.
Average USDC in circulation grew 25% from a year earlier, yet reserve income rose just 5% to $668 million, as the return on Circle’s reserves fell 66 basis points to 3.5%. USDC also ended the quarter at $73.3 billion, below its $76.5 billion average for the period.
As co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire said in the release, “Our quarterly financial results reflect the current rate environment and a crypto market that has slowed.”
Needham’s bet on what comes next
Needham analyst John Todaro’s $134 target is well above the Street’s $107 consensus, though far below its $243 high.
And the bull case has picked up real evidence. In August, management raised its 2026 outlook for other revenue to $310 million to $330 million, from $150 million to $170 million (the new range includes ARC token presale revenue). Then on Sept. 22, Binance bought $100 million of Circle stock at $80.84 a share, with a two-year lockup, and renewed its commercial deal for five years.
TIKR tracks 29 analysts on Circle Internet Group. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Circle Internet Group, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Circle Internet Group’s Analyst Ratings
Does $134 add up?
Analysts have warmed to the stock as it fell: TIKR counts 13 Buy and 2 Outperform ratings now, against 5 and 1 at the end of September 2025. But the consensus target has fallen from $170 last October to $107, after bottoming at $101 in mid-August…
Analysts expect normalized EPS to drop from $2.35 in 2025 to $1.14 this year, then recover to $1.47 in 2027 and $1.99 in 2028…
This year’s estimates are moving up, too. Yahoo Finance’s 2026 consensus has climbed from $0.83 to $1.10 over the past 90 days, though 2027’s has slipped from $1.53 to $1.42.
The multiple is the bigger hurdle. Circle trades at [68.6x] forward earnings, below its one-year average of 76.2x and nowhere near the 159.4x it hit last October…
Needham’s $134 works out to 107.1x the $1.25 a share analysts expect Circle to earn over the next twelve months.
Plausible, with a catch
Reserve income made up $668 million of the $701 million Circle brought in during the second quarter, so every further drop in rates cuts into the core of the business.
My take: Needham’s call is plausible but stretched. Estimates are moving the right way, and the Binance deal is a real vote of confidence. But $134 needs investors to pay well above the stock’s one-year average multiple, and 2027 estimates aren’t helping yet.
Circle reports third-quarter results on Nov. 4. If USDC in circulation is growing again and the reserve return rate holds up, Needham’s target gets a lot easier to defend.
So what is Circle Internet Group stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
