Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) shares rose about 4% in after-hours trading on Tuesday, to about $154, after the company reported third-quarter results that beat on nearly every line. Revenue rose 161% to $14.6 billion, against the $12.72 billion LSEG consensus, and net income came in at $4.4 billion, SpaceX’s first profitable quarter as a public company.
But about $1.6 billion of that profit, roughly 37%, came from below the operating line, not from rockets, Starlink or AI.
Where SpaceX’s $4.4 Billion Came From
Income from operations was $2.79 billion. Three items carried it the rest of the way:
- $1.03 billion of other income, including $561 million from a related party. The release doesn’t itemize it (the nine-month cash flow statement shows a $532 million unrealized gain on stakes in unconsolidated affiliates).
- A $390 million tax benefit, against a $562 million tax charge a year earlier.
- $198 million of net interest income. SpaceX earned $873 million on about $90 billion of cash and securities after the June IPO, more than its $675 million interest bill.
In every earlier quarter on the chart, net income landed below operating income. Q3 flipped that pattern.
SI Now Brings In Half of SpaceX’s Revenue
Super Intelligence (SI), the AI unit built on xAI and now Cursor, grew revenue 830% to $7.56 billion. That’s 51.9% of the total, up from 14.6% a year earlier, and Cursor added $608 million after closing on August 14.
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The profit still sits mostly with Starlink. SI’s operating income was $431 million after $1.2 billion of Cursor stock compensation, while Connectivity earned $2.37 billion, about 85% of the group total. CFO Bret Johnsen said on the Q3 2026 earnings call that Connectivity’s 55% gross margin included a one-time benefit of roughly 3 percentage points, primarily from tariff refunds. Separately, he said total-company gross margin in Q4 should be more consistent with Q2’s.
SpaceX’s Guidance Is Huge. So Is the Capex Bill.
Johnsen guided Q1 2027 revenue to $33 billion to $37 billion, against a $22.2 billion LSEG average. The midpoint is 58% above consensus and 2.4 times Q3 revenue. The stock, which sank to fresh post-IPO lows in July, added only about $87 billion after hours on a market value of roughly $2.0 trillion at Tuesday’s $147.79 close.
That caution has a number behind it. Q3 capex was $19.6 billion, more than twice the $8.8 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and Q4 capex is guided to $35 billion to $40 billion.
The chart runs through June. Over nine months, SpaceX generated $13.1 billion of operating cash and spent $48.1 billion on capex, a gap of about $35.0 billion. Even Q3’s roughly $9.6 billion of operating cash covered only about half that quarter’s spending.
What the Committees Mean for Tesla and Nvidia
On the call, Musk said SpaceX and Tesla have each formed special committees of independent directors to discuss a merger “at the request of shareholders.” The committees haven’t agreed terms, he said, and Tesla would need a yes from 50% of all its shares.
Tesla (TSLA) reports Q3 after the close today, its first call since that disclosure. For Nvidia (NVDA), the read-through is infrastructure demand: SI capex was $16.4 billion in Q3 and $40.0 billion over nine months, and Musk said SpaceX was on track to bring roughly 200,000 GB300s online per month for the remainder of 2026, continuing that pace next year primarily with Vera Rubin compute.
The Bull and Bear Read on SpaceX Stock
The bull case is contracted demand. SpaceX ended Q3 with $63 billion of backlog, about $42 billion of it due within a year, which gives the Q1 guide a base beyond Musk’s targets.
The bear case is that the headline flatters the business. Strip out the $1.6 billion below the line and profit falls to $2.79 billion, a figure that still includes the tariff refund, while capex is set to nearly double.
SI proved it can rent compute at a profit. It hasn’t proved SpaceX earns $4.4 billion a quarter. With Q4 margins guided back toward Q2’s level, the line to watch in the next report is operating income against Q3’s $2.79 billion, not net income.
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