Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) shares fell about 7% in after-hours trading on Tuesday (to about $406) after the company’s third-quarter report showed U.S. da Vinci procedures growing just 10%, even as revenue and earnings beat estimates.
That drop erased about $11 billion of market value, roughly 25 times the $450 million legal charge in the quarter. The number that matters more for 2027 got little attention: a planned 3% to 5% cut in instrument revenue per procedure.
What Intuitive Reported on October 20
- Revenue rose 22% to $3.05 billion, and adjusted EPS of $3.00 beat the $2.64 estimate.
- U.S. da Vinci procedures grew 10%, against 20% outside the U.S. (the CFO cited a tough 16% prior-year comparison).
- 2026 procedure guidance narrowed to 14% to 15% from 13.5% to 15.5%, so the midpoint held.
- A $450 million antitrust settlement charge, still subject to court approval.
Where Intuitive’s Price Cut Lands
Instruments and accessories are the recurring engine, and that revenue rose 43% in two years to $1.80 billion in Q3.
Intuitive’s extended-use program, volume-based pricing and China price cuts should lower da Vinci instrument revenue per procedure by 3% to 5% by the end of 2027 (mix held constant). On the last four quarters’ $6.88 billion, that’s about $206 million to $344 million a year (Ion is included, and force-feedback gains management left out push the other way).
Where Analysts Have ISRG Stock
The Street’s mean target is $478.53, about 9% above Tuesday’s $438.27 close and about 18% above the after-hours price. That mean has dropped 21% from $605.08 at the end of March, while the stock slipped just 5% from $460.99 over the same stretch, so analysts had already marked Intuitive down well before this report.
At about $406, the stock is back where it closed on September 30 ($406.63), giving up a run that took it about 19% above the $367 it traded at on September 8. For a business still growing procedures 14%, that looks like an overreaction to one U.S. quarter. The real test comes in January, when Intuitive gives its 2027 spending outlook.
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