Key Takeaways
- Cipher Digital shares jumped 9% today as AI data-center stocks, including IREN, Nebius, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark, rebounded from Monday’s selloff.
- The bounce looks like relief: Cipher had no news, and three firms cut their targets.
- Cipher’s third-quarter revenue fell 63% and missed estimates, and Barber Lake’s rent may not start until early 2027.
- Barber Lake’s first rent and today’s Texas governor’s race are what to watch next.
Cipher Digital (CIFR) jumped 9% this morning with no news of its own, as AI data-center stocks bounced back from Monday’s selloff.
The neoclouds IREN (IREN) and Nebius Group (NBIS) rose before the open, and bitcoin miners Riot Platforms (RIOT) and CleanSpark (CLSK) joined in.
Lower targets, same ratings
Cipher reported Monday that third-quarter revenue fell 63% from a year earlier and missed estimates.
Cipher now expects rent at Barber Lake, its biggest contract, to start between now and early 2027, after guiding to the fourth quarter.
Analysts expected revenue to nearly quadruple, from $215 million this year to $849 million in 2027:
That jump needs Barber Lake paying rent early next year, with no more slips.
So three firms cut their targets this morning while keeping Overweight ratings: JPMorgan to $18 from $22, Wells Fargo to $15 from $25 and Cantor Fitzgerald to $15 from $19. Wall Street’s average target had slipped from its $33 August high to $28 by Monday:
Even $15 is more than double Monday’s close, and still about double after today’s jump.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Cipher Digital. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Cipher Digital, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Cipher Digital’s Analyst Ratings
The rest of the group reports soon
IREN, up 8%, reports on Nov. 5, and Nebius, up 5%, reports before the open on Nov. 12. In July, IREN said about 85% of its target of more than $4 billion in annualized AI cloud revenue by the end of 2026 was under contract. Both reports will show whether AI customers are still signing.
Riot rose 9% and CleanSpark 7%. Riot slid Monday when Keefe, Bruyette & Woods warned of a drought in lease catalysts. Can either sign new AI tenants soon?
Texas votes today
All of Cipher’s operating and contracted sites are in Texas, where voters pick a governor today. On Monday’s Blockspace show, co-host Will Foxley, who owns Cipher shares, said that if the race “flips from red to blue,” the company “could be in a world of hurt.”
Frankly, today’s jump looks like relief to me: Cipher still missed on revenue, and Barber Lake’s rent still starts later.
Of course, Cipher has $16.6 billion in contracted revenue against a market value of about $3 billion. If Barber Lake starts paying on the new schedule, those Overweight ratings will look a lot better.
So what is Cipher Digital stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Cipher Digital could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
