Key Takeaways
- Cipher Digital fell 5% after third-quarter revenue missed estimates, despite its first $5.9 million of HPC rent.
- With $16.6 billion of rent under contract, the stock now trades on whether its data halls start paying on schedule.
- Analysts’ 2026 estimate implies about $130 million of fourth-quarter revenue, which looks like a stretch.
- Riot Platforms, IREN and Applied Digital show the same gap between signed rent and collected rent.
Cipher Digital (CIFR) sank 5% today after third-quarter revenue missed estimates, even as its first AI data center rent arrived.
Riot Platforms (RIOT) and IREN (IREN) report this week with year-end deadlines too, and Applied Digital (APLD) is already collecting rent on 250 megawatts.
The first rent check is small
Revenue fell 63% from a year earlier as bitcoin mining revenue dropped 71% to $20.8 million. Rent from Black Pearl added $5.9 million.
That rent is a rounding error next to the $16.6 billion Cipher has under contract, $9.1 billion of it at Barber Lake. Cipher says Barber Lake’s rent starts between now and early 2027.
Analysts went into the report expecting that ramp to show up fast:
Their $217 million estimate for 2026 leaves about $130 million for the fourth quarter. With 18 megawatts handed over at Black Pearl so far and Barber Lake’s first hall still to come, I’d expect that to come down.
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The whole group is on the same clock
Riot, which reports Wednesday, has the same gap: $23.2 million of second-quarter data center revenue, only $4.9 million of it rent, and a $9.1 billion AI lab lease that doesn’t start delivering until December 2027.
IREN reports Thursday with $4 billion of contracted annual run-rate revenue for 2026 capacity, only $1 billion of it live in late August, and three more Microsoft deployments targeted for this quarter. Do they arrive on time?
Applied Digital shows the payoff: $65.8 million of base rent in the quarter to Aug. 31. Its next report should show whether it faces what Cipher CEO Tyler Page described on Monday’s call: pickier lenders and rising building costs.
The halls have to show up on time
Cipher’s forward price/sales multiple shows how little investors are paying for that rent:
At Friday’s close, it was 5.4x, against an 11x three-year average and a 34x April peak. Today’s drop takes it lower still.
Still, the stock looks cheap if the halls arrive on time. If Barber Lake’s rent slips into 2027, expect more days like today. That first Barber Lake rent check is the next real test.
So what is Cipher Digital stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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