Key Takeaways
- Kosmos Energy shares fell 12% after third-quarter earnings and revenue missed Wall Street’s estimates.
- Net debt is down more than $500 million this year.
- Kosmos sold fewer barrels than it produced in the quarter, and it guided fourth-quarter production lower.
- With no new Jubilee wells until mid-2027, revenue estimates look likely to come down.
Kosmos Energy (KOS) stock fell 12% this morning after its third-quarter results missed estimates on both earnings and revenue.
The stock had roughly tripled in 2026 going into the report.
There wasn’t much room for a miss.
More barrels pumped than sold
Kosmos reported adjusted earnings of $0.06 a share against a 16-cent consensus. Revenue came in at $410 million, more than $90 million below the $503 million analysts expected.
It pumped about 69,200 barrels of oil equivalent a day, in line with guidance and up 6% from a year ago. But it sold only about 62,400 a day, so it ended the quarter owed about 1.1 million barrels it hadn’t yet lifted.
The balance sheet keeps getting better
Total debt peaked at the end of 2025 and fell in each of the next two quarters, while cash climbed:
By Sept. 30, net debt was down to $2.47 billion, from $2.98 billion at the start of the year. Kosmos also generated $90 million of free cash flow, its third positive quarter in a row.
Management expects net debt below $2.4 billion by year-end. CEO Andrew Inglis said the company “will now look to address our 2028 bond maturities.”
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on Kosmos Energy. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Kosmos Energy, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Kosmos Energy’s Analyst Ratings
No new Jubilee wells until mid-2027
Kosmos finished its seven-well Jubilee campaign offshore Ghana in the quarter. The next one, of up to 10 wells, isn’t expected to start until mid-2027. Kosmos guided fourth-quarter production to 60,000-64,000 barrels a day, about 10% below the third quarter at the midpoint.
Analysts already expected revenue to peak this year and slide through 2028:
To hit the $1.83 billion analysts expect for 2026, Kosmos needs more than $430 million of revenue in the fourth quarter. That’s more than it just reported, on fewer barrels. I’d expect those estimates to come down.
At the end of the day, Kosmos is a much safer company than it was in January. But with production heading lower until the new wells arrive, I don’t see much near-term upside after this year’s run.
Of course, a smooth refinancing of the 2028 bonds would make the wait easier.
So what is Kosmos Energy stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
