Key Takeaways
- Riot Platforms fell 2% after Keefe Bruyette cut its price target to $20 from $35, in a reset that also hit Cipher Digital, CleanSpark and Hut 8.
- The firm kept its Outperform rating but warned of a possible “lease catalyst drought” through early 2027.
- Riot’s signed leases back analysts’ 2028 revenue estimate, but its $573 million bridge loan comes due Dec. 31.
- Riot’s Nov. 4 report and that loan’s refinancing are the tests to watch.
Riot Platforms (RIOT) stock is down 2% today after Keefe Bruyette cut its price target to $20 from $35. Cipher Digital (CIFR) is off 4% after the biggest of the firm’s seven cuts, to $11 from $28.
CleanSpark (CLSK) and Hut 8 (HUT) were cut too, and all four kept their Outperform ratings. Bitcoin is roughly flat.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Riot Platforms. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Riot Platforms, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Riot Platforms’ Analyst Ratings
Show us the financing
Keefe Bruyette said miners now trade near or below the estimated value of their contracted leases, and that investors need clarity on construction costs and financing. Analyst Stephen Glagola also flagged Texas regulatory uncertainty and a potential “lease catalyst drought” through early 2027.
Riot has a deadline: its $573 million bridge loan for the Rockdale build comes due Dec. 31.
Analysts expect Riot’s revenue to nearly double from 2025 to 2028:
I wouldn’t expect a lease drought to change those estimates much. The $457 million jump in 2028 matches the average yearly revenue management expects from its signed lease with a frontier AI lab. A drought would hit Corsicana, where Riot has only a letter of intent.
But Riot isn’t cheap on its own history. At Friday’s close, it traded at 6.8x forward sales, a bit above its five-year average of 6.2x:
Cipher has the leases and still took the biggest cut
Cipher reported its first AI lease revenue this morning, and it has stretched its Barber Lake lease to 20 years, lifting contracted revenue there to about $9.1 billion. It still took a 61% target cut. CEO Tyler Page said Cipher is “advancing design work before committing to new leases,” so even a company with tenants isn’t rushing into new deals.
Even Hut 8, down 2%, which has closed $7.5 billion of investment-grade project financing behind 949 megawatts of leases, saw its target fall to $92 from $154.
CleanSpark, down 2%, has the Texas problem. Its Sandersville tenant holds exclusivity over its Texas sites, but no lease is signed, and the governor has ordered an audit of data center grid connections. Riot’s Corsicana campus is in Texas too.
Wednesday is the first test
Riot reports on Wednesday, Nov. 4, and I’ll be watching whether its roughly $180 million AMD term loan closed. The way I see it, the signed rent looks solid. But at a multiple above its own average, I’d want the bridge refinanced before calling Riot a bargain. Of course, a signed Corsicana lease would change that fast.
So what is Riot Platforms stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Riot Platforms could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
