Key Takeaways
- Marvell stock is down 45% from its June high, and it fell again after agreeing to buy Lumentum in a $115 billion all-stock deal.
- UBS kept its Buy rating and $350 price target the next day, which points to 102% upside.
- Earnings estimates are rising, but $350 works out to 62x Marvell’s expected earnings over the next twelve months, against a five-year average of 33x.
- UBS’s target looks too high for the next year, and Marvell’s third-quarter report in early December is the next check.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) is down 45% from its June high. Investors sent it lower again on Nov. 2, when it agreed to buy Lumentum (LITE) in an all-stock deal valued at $115 billion. UBS still thinks the stock can more than double.
A deal investors didn’t want
Investors balked when Bloomberg reported the talks on Oct. 28.
The terms came on Nov. 2: Lumentum holders get 4.5 Marvell shares for each Lumentum share, or about $1,132 a share. They will own about a third of the combined company, and the deal is expected to close in the first half of 2028.
In the deal announcement, CEO Matt Murphy said AI’s shift toward optical connectivity is creating “an opportunity that comes along once in a generation.” The companies say the deal will add to Marvell’s adjusted EPS in its first year after closing.
UBS didn’t budge
UBS’s Timothy Arcuri kept his Buy rating and $350 target on Nov. 3. From today’s $173.24 share price, that’s 102% upside.
He thinks the deal makes Marvell’s optical networking outlook stronger. At its Oct. 6 Investor Day, Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook (the year ending January 2028) to about $20 billion, from about $15 billion in March.
TIKR tracks 44 analysts on Marvell. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Marvell, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Marvell’s Analyst Ratings
Can Marvell earn its way to $350?
Marvell has 45 analysts covering it. The average target on TIKR climbed from $90 in November 2025 to $341 on Nov. 2:
Earnings estimates have climbed too. Analysts expect normalized EPS of $7.36 for fiscal 2028, up from $6.24 just 90 days ago:
The trouble is how much UBS’s target asks investors to pay for those earnings. At the Nov. 2 close, Marvell traded at 30x forward earnings, a little under its five-year average of 33x:
Analysts expect Marvell to earn $5.65 a share over the next twelve months, so UBS’s $350 works out to 62x earnings. That’s far above the average and close to the 70x peak of June 4.
Not in a year
The earnings boost the companies promise only starts after the deal closes, and that’s more than a year away.
I don’t see Marvell at $350 within a year. Estimates are rising, but UBS needs investors to pay close to June’s peak multiple for a company that’s about to hand a third of itself to Lumentum’s holders.
Marvell’s third-quarter report in early December is the next check. Listen for what management says about fiscal 2028 and how much the deal adds to EPS.
So what is Marvell stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Marvell could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
