Key Takeaways
- Wedbush took over coverage of Oklo with an Outperform rating and a $36 target. That’s down from the firm’s earlier $110 but 50% above the stock price.
- Oklo is down 81% from its high a year ago after raising its spending guidance and selling stock at falling prices to pay for its reactors.
- Analysts’ average target has fallen from $105 to $65 over the past year, and their loss estimates for 2026 and 2027 have widened over the past three months.
- Wedbush’s $36 looks more realistic than the Street’s $65, though more stock sales look likely before Oklo puts a price on its first power plant.
Oklo (OKLO) has fallen 81% from its 52-week closing high of $126.67, set on Nov. 3, 2025. On Monday, Wedbush analyst Seth Basham assumed coverage with an Outperform rating and a $36 price target. That’s down from the firm’s earlier $110 but still 50% above the stock’s $24.01 share price.
Shareholders are paying for the build
Oklo is paying for its reactors with shareholders’ money. Its share count rose 34% from the end of 2024 to June 30, 2026. Over the same stretch, the average price of its at-the-market stock sales fell to $63.51 in the second quarter, from $96.95 in January.
Then the bill went up. With its second-quarter results on Aug. 7, management raised its 2026 guidance to $120 million-$150 million of cash used in operations, from $80 million-$100 million, and to $400 million-$500 million of spending on plants. On Sept. 11, Oklo set up a new $1.0 billion at-the-market stock program.
And management still hasn’t given a cost for Aurora-INL, its first power plant, in Idaho. On Oct. 19, Piper Sandler raised its estimate of what an Oklo plant costs to build to $7,000 per kilowatt, from $4,000.
TIKR tracks 24 analysts on Oklo. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Oklo, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Oklo’s Analyst Ratings
Wedbush is buying the Groves record
Wedbush calls Oklo the furthest along of the U.S. advanced nuclear developers, and it builds its case on Groves. Oklo’s isotope test reactor in Texas reached first criticality on Aug. 5, a little over 11 months after breaking ground. Wedbush says that record sets Oklo apart from rivals still in first-of-a-kind regulatory review with no operating asset. It also points to AI’s demand for power.
Does $36 add up?
Analysts’ average target started the year at $105, peaked at $117 on Jan. 21 and has since fallen to $65:
The latest targets are much closer to Wedbush’s. TD Cowen initiated coverage at Hold with a $26 target on Oct. 26, and Citi and Truist cut theirs to $33 and $31.
Analysts’ loss estimates are widening, too: $0.96 a share for 2026 and $1.03 for 2027, against $0.73 and $0.83 three months ago. And they expect only a few million dollars of revenue a year until 2028:
Nothing in Wedbush’s call should move those numbers. A cost for Aurora-INL or a signed power contract would.
Oklo does have $3.0 billion of cash and marketable securities. That’s $16.24 a share at June 30, not far below today’s $24.01. But analysts expect Oklo to burn $6.3 billion of free cash flow from 2026 through 2030. Until Meta signs a binding power contract for its Ohio campus or a lender funds a plant, more stock sales will fill that gap.
Here’s where I land: Wedbush’s $36 is the more believable of the two numbers, and the Street’s $65 has further to fall. Even so, I wouldn’t count on $36 within a year until Oklo puts a price on Aurora-INL.
Oklo reports third-quarter results before the open on Nov. 6. Its spending and stock sales that quarter are the first check.
So what is Oklo stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
