Key Takeaways
- Oklo shares fell 4% today after Truist cut its price target to $31 from $51 and kept its Hold rating ahead of third-quarter results.
- Truist is the fourth firm in four days to cut its Oklo target, after Piper Sandler, Barclays and Citi, and none of the four changed its rating.
- NuScale Power fell [4%] too, after Citi and Barclays both turned more bearish on it this week.
- Analysts expect only $51 million of revenue from Oklo in 2028, so the stock depends on reactors that won’t pay off for years.
Oklo (OKLO) shares fell 4% today after Truist cut its price target to $31 from $51 in a preview of third-quarter results.
NuScale Power (SMR) fell 2% too, as nuclear and AI-power stocks slid with the broader market.
Four cuts in four days
Truist analyst Christopher Souther kept his Hold rating, and his new target sits about 12% above Wednesday’s close.
It’s the fourth Oklo target cut this week…
- Piper Sandler: $49, from $55, Overweight (Monday)
- Barclays: $59, from $76, Overweight (Tuesday)
- Citi: $33, from $57.50, Neutral (Wednesday)
- Truist: $31, from $51, Hold (today)
None of the four changed its rating. Citi gave the clearest reason. It said renewables are out of favor because of higher interest rates, policy uncertainty and rising costs, and that strong demand for power has come apart from weak sentiment on the stocks.
Rising rates have dragged down the whole nuclear group, and Wall Street’s average target on Oklo has slid from $117 in January to $73 as of Wednesday:
NuScale is getting harsher treatment. On Wednesday, Citi cut its target to $4 from $6.50 and kept a Sell rating. Barclays stayed Overweight on Oklo but cut NuScale to Underweight this week, over delays in signing binding commercial contracts.
TIKR tracks 24 analysts on Oklo. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Oklo, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Oklo’s Analyst Ratings
Revenue is still years away
Those targets depend on a business that barely brings in revenue yet. Analysts expect $3 million this year, $9 million in 2027 and $51 million in 2028…
…for a company worth about $5 billion.
Until its reactors pay, Oklo lives off its cash. It has built that cash up by selling stock, which pushed its share count up 26%…
[CHART 3 TO PULL FROM TIKR BY HAND: Oklo (OKLO): cash and short-term investments, fiscal 2021–2025]
It held $3.0 billion of cash and marketable securities at June 30, and analysts expect it to burn roughly $6.5 billion more through 2030. So more stock sales look likely.
Q3 is the next test
Oklo is down 80% in the past year (through Wednesday’s close). None of the four firms downgraded the stock, so I read these cuts as analysts adjusting to higher rates and a lower stock price.
My take: Oklo’s reactors may well be worth more than $5 billion one day, but dilution should keep a lid on the stock until they start bringing in money.
Of course, the third-quarter report, due in the next few weeks, could change that. Watch how much cash Oklo burned and whether it sold more stock.
So what is Oklo stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Oklo could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
