Key Takeaways
- Equifax shares rose 6% today after Argus upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a $200 price target.
- The upgrade adds to Tuesday’s third-quarter rally, when U.S. mortgage revenue grew 15% even though the mortgage market got weaker.
- Equifax also cut its 2026 revenue guidance, and its fourth-quarter revenue guidance came in below what analysts expected.
- The $200 target is close to the Street’s consensus, but the stock’s forward P/E is still well below its five-year average.
Equifax (EFX) shares are up 6% today after Argus upgraded the credit bureau to Buy from Hold before the open, with a $200 price target.
That’s the stock’s second big jump this week. Equifax soared 10.7% on Tuesday after its third-quarter report. It’s now well above its Sept. 30 low of about $137. Equifax isn’t the only data stock climbing, either: TransUnion is up about as much today with no news of its own, while chipmakers fall.
Argus sees growth coming back
Argus analyst John Eade argues that Equifax has put its data breach behind it and is growing again, and the third quarter gives him a fair amount to point to.
Revenue climbed 10% to $1.69 billion, and mortgages did much of the work: U.S. mortgage revenue grew 15% even as the mortgage market softened late in the quarter. Everything outside mortgages grew 8%, so the strength isn’t coming from just one corner of the business.
Analysts expect the climb to continue, with revenue heading from $6.07 billion in 2025 to around $7.8 billion in 2028…
…and the $6.67 billion consensus for 2026 already matches Equifax’s lowered guidance.
Mortgages are still the soft spot
Management doesn’t expect the weaker mortgage market to turn around before year-end, so it trimmed its 2026 revenue guidance to $6.661 billion at the midpoint. The fourth-quarter outlook of $1.605 billion to $1.635 billion in revenue also lands below the roughly $1.68 billion analysts were looking for.
Profit is holding up better than revenue, though. Equifax still expects $8.50 of adjusted EPS this year, just $0.04 below its old midpoint, and CEO Mark Begor says AI-driven cost cuts should mostly make up for the lost mortgage revenue.
TIKR tracks 24 analysts on Equifax. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Equifax, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Equifax’s Analyst Ratings
$200 is close, and the stock still isn’t pricey
Argus’s $200 target was about 14% above Wednesday’s close, and today’s jump has used up a lot of that. The target also sits right where the Street already is. The consensus target is about $198, down from about $271 a year ago, when shares traded near $230…
Still, the stock looks cheap against its own history…
Equifax traded at 19x forward earnings at Wednesday’s close, and it’s closer to 20x after today’s jump. Its five-year average is 28x. At $200, the stock would trade at about 22x, which is still well below its usual level.
My take: Most of the quick rebound has already happened this week. But revenue is still growing, management kept its earnings guidance almost unchanged, and the multiple is far below its average, so I think Equifax still looks reasonable here. Mortgages are the swing factor, and the fourth-quarter report in early February will show whether the weak patch has spread past them.
So what is Equifax stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
