Key Takeaways
- Waste Connections shares rose 10% after its third-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.58 and revenue of $2.64 billion beat estimates, and it raised its 2026 revenue outlook to about $10.09 billion.
- Waste Connections still looks like a buy after the jump, because price increases and improving volumes keep the business compounding.
- Margins grew even through a late-quarter surge in diesel prices, and the company raised its dividend 10% while buying back over $1 billion of stock this year.
- The stock still trades below its five-year average forward P/E, and the next test is whether volumes start growing again.
Waste Connections (WCN) stock is up 10% today after the company beat Wall Street’s third-quarter estimates and raised its 2026 outlook for the second time this year. That’s a big move for a stock this steady, especially on a morning when the broader market is falling.
President and CEO Ronald Mittelstaedt called the quarter “another top to bottom beat,” and the numbers back him up.
The details
After Wednesday’s close, Waste Connections reported:
- Adjusted EPS of $1.58, up from $1.44 a year ago and ahead of the $1.52 consensus
- Revenue of $2.64 billion, up 7% and ahead of the $2.61 billion consensus
- A full-year revenue outlook of about $10.09 billion, up from $10.02 billion to $10.05 billion before
- A 10% dividend raise, to $0.385 a share each quarter, its 16th double-digit increase in a row
The new outlook keeps a steady climb in sales going…
Analysts’ $10.1 billion for 2026 already matches the new outlook, and they expect roughly 5% growth a year through 2028. Nothing in this report gives them a reason to trim that.
TIKR tracks 28 analysts on Waste Connections. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Waste Connections, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Waste Connections’ Analyst Ratings
Pricing still does the heavy lifting
Core price rose 5.5% in the quarter. Solid waste volumes still slipped 1.2% from a year ago, but that was 70 basis points better than the second quarter, led by more activity at landfills.
That held up against a late-quarter spike in fuel costs. Mittelstaedt said the company “overcame a late quarter surge in diesel pricing to deliver adjusted EBITDA margin of 34% on underlying margin expansion of 50 basis points.”
Plus: management still expects at least $1.4 billion of adjusted free cash flow this year, and it has already spent over $1 billion buying back 2.5% of its shares.
Still cheaper than usual
Before today, Waste Connections had lagged the market in 2026, down about 3% for the year through Wednesday’s close. That pushed its forward P/E down to a five-year low of 26x earlier this month…
At this morning’s price, it’s closer to 30x, still well below its 33x five-year average.
My take: Waste Connections still looks like a buy after today’s pop. A business that keeps pushing through price increases above 5%, grows its dividend by double digits and is getting its volumes back on track has earned at least its usual multiple.
The trade-off is debt: long-term debt rose to $9.43 billion at the end of September from $8.81 billion at the end of 2025.
Of course, volumes are still shrinking, and the real test is whether they start growing again by the time the company reports its fourth quarter early next year.
So what is Waste Connections stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
