Key Takeaways
- Cipher Digital shares have lost 41% in three months, and on Oct. 9 Morgan Stanley cut its price target to $51.50 from $54 while keeping its Overweight rating.
- That target implies 296% upside and 38x next-twelve-months sales, a multiple the stock hasn’t reached in the last three years.
- Analysts expect revenue to rise from $219 million in 2026 to $850 million in 2027 as rent starts on leases Cipher has already signed.
- The data makes the Street’s $30 consensus target look within reach, while $51.50 would take a fourth lease or a much richer valuation.
Cipher Digital (CIFR) has lost 41% over the last three months, to $13.00 a share. Morgan Stanley sees it nearly quadrupling.
The rough patch
On Cipher’s Aug. 4 call, CEO Tyler Page addressed a letter from Texas Governor Greg Abbott that delayed ERCOT’s decision on which projects make its first batch of grid connections. Three Cipher sites, about 2 gigawatts, are waiting on it.
Page’s take: “Short-term frustration is we’re not going to hear on Friday.”
On Oct. 6, Cipher told a KBW conference that financing and execution risks have risen.
Morgan Stanley stays bullish
On Oct. 9, Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Byrd kept his Overweight rating and trimmed his price target to $51.50 from $54, 296% above today’s $13.00.
The firm trimmed targets across bitcoin miners turned AI landlords, over how it values pipeline sites. That’s most of Cipher’s portfolio: about 4.4 of its 5.3 gigawatts has no tenant yet.
Does $51.50 add up?
As of Oct. 9, 15 of 22 analysts rate Cipher Buy and five Outperform, with a consensus target of $30 in a range of $18 to $59.
The consensus target has barely budged, from a peak of $33 on Aug. 4 to $30 now, while the stock sank to $13.52 on Oct. 9.
That patience rests on rent: analysts expect revenue of $219 million this year, then $850 million in 2027 and $1.04 billion in 2028.
Rent started at Black Pearl in August, Barber Lake’s is due this month, and Stingray comes online in the first half of 2027, so that jump rests on signed leases. Morgan Stanley’s trim, which was about the pipeline, shouldn’t move them.
The stock traded at 9.9x forward sales at the Oct. 9 close, below its three-year average of 11.4x and far from April’s peak of 33.5x.
Morgan Stanley’s $51.50 works out to 38x next-twelve-months sales, above anything the stock has seen in three years. That’s a lot to ask. (Rent is still ramping, so a year out, the same target implies a lower multiple.)
The Street’s $30 looks closer
The risk is just over $6 billion of debt at June 30, against second-quarter revenue of $25 million. The project notes are paid down from rent, so every campus has to start on time.
For me, the numbers don’t support $51.50 within a year. The Street’s $30 looks well within reach.
What would change my mind is a fourth lease. Page said in August that Cipher is talking with multiple tenants for Reveille and Ulysses, 270 megawatts due in 2027. If one signs on the better terms he described, $51.50 starts to look a lot more reasonable.
So what is Cipher Digital stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
