Key Stats for Chevron Stock
- Current Price: $206.69
- Target Price (Mid): ~$212
- Street Target: ~$225
- Potential Total Return: ~2.5%
- Annualized IRR: ~0.6% / year
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What Happened?
Chevron (CVX) repurchased $5.5 billion of stock under its buyback program in the first half of 2026, according to its first-quarter and second-quarter 10-Q filings. It guided to $2.5 billion to $3.0 billion for the third quarter. That pace sits at the low end of its $10 billion to $20 billion annual range, and CFO Eimear Bonner has tied it to oil-price volatility. At the Barclays Energy-Power Conference on September 8, she said excess cash “will go back to the shareholders,” calling it “not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when.” She tied the timing to having “a clear path on what the outlook on price looks like.” With shares up 35.6% in 2026 to $206.69 as of October 2, the October 30 earnings call listed in its investor relations materials is the next read on that timing.
Chevron Is Choosing Caution Over Cash
Bonner ranked Chevron’s priorities in order: grow the dividend, invest capital efficiently, strengthen the balance sheet, then buy back stock. As of September 8, she said, excess cash was going to the balance sheet, and “we generally don’t like to move the buyback rate during times of volatility.” She pointed to an oil move she put at about $35 in the prior month.
On paper, cash is not the constraint. TIKR shows consensus NTM levered free cash flow of around $44 billion. Subtracting around $14 billion of expected dividends leaves around $30 billion, above the top of the buyback range. Bonner also said the capital plan already funds the projects behind 7% to 10% growth in the portfolio. Added Venezuela spending will eventually be affiliate capital as Chevron moves to equity accounting there. At TIKR’s $405.4 billion market cap, the full range equals about 2.5% to 4.9% of the company’s value a year.
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Peak Earnings and a Court Case Could Keep Buybacks Low
Earnings are the tighter constraint. Consensus GAAP EPS of around $17 for 2026 falls to around $14 in 2027. The third-quarter EPS consensus of around $4.80 sits about 21% below the second-quarter adjusted EPS. Chevron trades at about 13x NTM normalized P/E against 19.85x trailing diluted EPS because forward estimates sit well above the last twelve months. That forward multiple therefore rests on what consensus treats as a peak year. It sits above TotalEnergies (TTE) at about 7x and Equinor (EQNR) at about 9x, but below Saudi Aramco (2222) at about 15x. The balance sheet is a smaller claim than before, with TIKR showing LTM net debt of $28.5 billion, though Bonner did not name a debt target at Barclays.
Legal risk is the other unknown. The Supreme Court’s October 5 argument in Suncor Energy v. Boulder County asks whether federal law blocks state-law claims for climate damages. The Court also asked whether it has jurisdiction to hear the case now. The defendants are Suncor Energy (SU) and ExxonMobil (XOM), but Chevron has been named in similar suits by Honolulu and California. The allegations are unproven, and none of these cases has reached trial. With Justice Alito recused, a 4-4 split or a jurisdictional dismissal would leave Colorado’s ruling in place.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $206.69
- Target Price (Mid): ~$212
- Potential Total Return: ~2.5%
- Annualized IRR: ~0.6% / year
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Buybacks are the lever to watch against the TIKR mid case, which targets around $212 by 12/31/30. Its mid-case inputs assume revenue growth under 1% a year, net margins around 12%, and EPS growth around 8%, offset by a P/E multiple shrinking about 6% a year. A pace at the top of Chevron’s range would retire about 4.9% of shares a year at the October 2 price, roughly double the low end. The downside is oil falling as earnings come off their expected 2026 peak. The Street mean target is around $225 across 24 estimates, with 25 ratings split 14 Buy, 6 Outperform, 4 Hold, and 1 Sell.
Conclusion
Chevron’s first- and second-quarter 10-Qs each guided the next quarter’s buybacks. A fourth-quarter guide above $3.0 billion, with the October 30 results or the 10-Q that follows, would show Bonner’s “when” has arrived. A repeat of $2.5 billion to $3.0 billion puts 2026 at around $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion, near the bottom of the range. That would leave the 3.5% dividend yield doing most of the work.
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So what is Chevron stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
