Key Stats for Celsius Stock
- Current Price: $27.17
- Target Price (Mid): ~$47
- Street Target: ~$55
- Potential Total Return: ~74%
- Annualized IRR: ~13% / year
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What Happened?
Celsius Holdings (CELH) closed at $27.17 on July 23, down 4.57% on the day and at the low end of a 52-week range that TIKR data puts at $27.07 to $66.74. Measured from its peak, the stock now sits 58.11% below it.
Two things preceded that close. On July 16, the UK published plans to bar high-caffeine energy drink sales to under-16s in England. Between June 24 and July 16, six brokerages cut their Celsius price targets: Bank of America to $45, UBS to $50, Roth to $57, Needham to $55, Citi to $50, and Stifel to $45. Everyone kept a Buy rating, and everyone still sits far above the stock. Targets that survive repeated cuts while remaining 65% to 100% above the price are following the tape, not calling it.
What England’s Proposal Reaches, and What It Doesn’t
The UK’s Department of Health and Social Care announced on July 16 that it intends to restrict sales of drinks above 150mg of caffeine per litre to anyone under 16 across shops, vending machines, and online sellers in England. This is proposed secondary legislation under the Food Safety Act 1990, targeted at April 2027 and subject to Parliamentary approval. Nothing is restricted today.
The government’s announcement does not name Celsius. Press coverage of the measure identified Monster Energy, Red Bull, Relentless, and Prime Energy as affected products. Celsius is captured by the caffeine threshold rather than singled out, and only in England.
The exposure is small but not zero. Celsius reported international revenue of $35.3 million in the first quarter of 2026, roughly 4.5% of the $782.6 million total, per the company’s results. The UK is one market inside a group that also includes the Nordics, Ireland, France, Australia, New Zealand, Benelux, and Spain, so England is a fraction of that 4.5%. What deserves more weight than the revenue is the precedent: Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are weighing similar rules, and Alani Nu is built for exactly the young, female consumer that such rules target.
Against that, CEO John Fieldly told Deutsche Bank’s Global Consumer Conference on June 2 that company research found over 33% of consumers now drink energy drinks with meals, and over 30% substitute them for alcohol at social gatherings. A category that has moved into adult mealtimes and social occasions does not turn on under-16 access.
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The CFO Moved the Margin Date Before the Cuts Started
The damage is in gross margin, and management dated it themselves.
Gross margin was 48.3% in the first quarter against 52.3% a year earlier, per the company’s results, because Alani Nu and Rockstar Energy arrived with lower margin structures than the core brand. Celsius has targeted a return to the low 50s. On June 2, CFO Jarrod Langhans moved that date, saying the company sees the opportunity to work its way to the low 50s, “but it will take a little longer than getting to the end of the year because of those additional impacts from commodities.” He named aluminum on the LME and the Midwest premium as the pressure, and noted that forward rates decline as new smelter capacity arrives.
Fieldly was equally direct about the flagship. Asked what he had learned from the PepsiCo transition, he said the company “should have had more innovation” on Celsius, and that the limited-time-offer approach “is an opportunity, but it’s not as strong as permanent SKU placements.” Celsius brand revenue grew 6% in the first quarter, a sequencing choice management made to protect two simultaneous integrations, with permanent SKUs and heavier innovation committed for 2027.
Both admissions came before the target cuts, which is why the cuts clustered where they did.
At 11.27x NTM EV/EBITDA and 16.52x forward earnings, Celsius trades below Coca-Cola at 21.96x and far below Monster Beverage at 29.19x, with only Keurig Dr Pepper cheaper at 10.97x. Paying 11x for faster growth at a repairing margin works only if the repair lands.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $27.17
- Target Price (Mid): ~$47
- Potential Total Return: ~74%
- Annualized IRR: ~13% / year
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Revenue drivers: Alani Nu still has runway. Langhans said velocity dollars expanded from January to April even as ACV climbed above 90, adding that most people would have been satisfied with flat over that stretch. Rockstar adds the traditional-energy entry the company never had, with shelf space targeted for 2027.
Margin driver: consolidating Alani Nu and Rockstar onto the Celsius bill-of-materials, freight lanes, and supply chain, plus a second production line at the Charlotte plant.
Primary risk: aluminum staying elevated long enough to push the low-50s target past 2027, at which point 11x stops being a discount.
Upside scenario: the flagship stabilizes over the summer while margin steps up in the back half, and the multiple re-rates.
Downside scenario: Celsius brand revenue turns negative with the aluminum headwind persisting, leaving a slower-growing business roughly fairly valued near current levels. Neither is a forecast.
Conclusion
Second-quarter results are expected in early August, though the company has not yet confirmed the date, and third-party calendars list days between August 5 and August 11. Langhans guided to a sequential sidestep in gross margin from 48.3%, meaning roughly flat, so flat is the bar he set. Our own threshold: 48% or better keeps his June timeline intact, and anything under 47% says aluminum is outrunning the integration savings and the low-50s target slides toward 2028.
The second line is the Celsius brand revenue. Fieldly said the flagship should stabilize over the summer and return to growth by year’s end. Six percent was the last reading against that promise.
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Should You Invest in Celsius?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Celsius, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
