Key Stats for Chevron Stock
- Current Price: $194.42
- Target Price (Mid): ~$184
- Street Target (Mean): ~$214
- Potential Total Return: ~-5% over 4.4 years
- Annualized IRR: ~-1% / year
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What Happened?
Chevron (CVX) closed at $194.42 on July 23, sitting 7.92% below its 52-week high after a drawdown that reached 21.53% on July 1. The recovery has been fast enough that TIKR’s mid-case valuation model, realized at the end of 2030, now lands at around $184, roughly 5% below where shares trade.
Nobody has pinned that recovery on a single event. Oil held a geopolitical premium through July, and analysts have been split on what comes next. Chevron reports second-quarter results on July 31.
Three Brokerages Moved Targets in July and Disagreed on Direction
Wall Street has not converged. On July 9, Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne cut his target to $216 from $236 while keeping a Buy. On July 22, TD Cowen raised to $200 from $197 but kept a Hold, lifting its number to roughly the market price without recommending the shares. On July 23, Piper Sandler assumed coverage at Overweight with a $207 target.
TIKR’s Street Targets page shows a mean of $213.83, with 14 Buys, 6 Outperforms, 4 Holds, and 1 Sell.
That mean sits about 10% above the current price. For context, on June 30, 2025, the mean target was $163.53 against a $143.19 close, a 14% premium. The cushion between consensus and market has narrowed as the stock climbed.
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At 11.6 Times Forward Earnings, the Discount to Peers Has Closed
Chevron trades at 11.62x NTM P/E and 5.48x NTM EV/EBITDA, per TIKR’s Multiples page as of July 23.
ExxonMobil (XOM) trades at 12.53x NTM P/E and 7.11x NTM EV/EBITDA, while TotalEnergies (TTE) sits at 8.44x and 4.78x, according to TIKR’s Competitors page. Chevron lands between the two on both measures, which is a different position than it held at the July low.
The balance sheet still separates it. LTM net debt to EBITDA runs at 1.06x, and TIKR’s estimates put net debt falling from $34.5 billion in 2025 toward around $22 billion in 2026. The forward dividend yield is 3.7%. Those support owning the stock. Neither argues for a rerating.
The Return Depends on Cost Cuts, Because Revenue Is Not Growing
TIKR’s model assumes essentially flat revenue through 2030, so margin has to carry everything. Jeff Gustavson, President of Chevron New Energies, put a figure on the cost side at the J.P. Morgan Natural Resources Conference on June 23, saying Chevron expects “to generate $3 billion to $4 billion of cost savings by the end of this year, each and every year.”
He also described where the next increment comes from. Chevron narrowed almost 1,000 internal AI opportunities to about 500, then to roughly 50 that he called “real needle-moving,” concentrated in supply chain, Permian drilling, and production optimization. On the subsurface side, he cited visibility into “1 in 5 of every well that’s drilled in the Permian” as a data advantage over peers.
That case is unproven. Cost programs are guidance until reported margin moves, and Chevron’s LTM EBIT margin currently sits at 8.7%.
The Microsoft power agreement, signed June 22, adds contracted revenue independent of oil prices, though Chevron is developing Project Kilby alongside Engine No. 1 rather than alone, and what exists today is a signed power purchase agreement, not a final investment decision. Gustavson was direct on scale: against a company generating close to $30 billion in cash flow later this decade, “it will take a while to become a real material part of the portfolio.”
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $194.42
- Target Price (Mid): ~$184
- Potential Total Return: ~-5% over 4.4 years
- Annualized IRR: ~-1% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Chevron stock (It’s free!) >>>
Two drivers shape the revenue line, and neither is growth. Hess barrels from Guyana and the Bakken replace declining legacy production, while the Permian holds volumes rather than expanding them. That leaves margin as the entire return engine: net income margin improving to around 11% from 9% over the past year, driven by the cost program and a higher-margin production mix.
The primary risk is multiple compression. The model assumes P/E declines at roughly 6% per year from a trailing 33.82x, and slower margin expansion would let that compression swamp the earnings gain.
- Low case: around -4% total return, roughly -0.5% per year
- High case: around 37% total return, roughly 4% per year
Conclusion
Chevron reports second-quarter results on July 31, with the earnings call at 11:00 a.m. ET. Mike Wirth, Eimear Bonner, and Gustavson are all scheduled to speak.
Free cash flow is the number to watch. Chevron posted a negative $1.549 billion in the first quarter as capital spending and commodity timing effects collided, while consensus models were around $37 billion for the full year. A second quarter that does not start closing that gap leaves the stock priced for a recovery that has not begun, and at 11.62 times forward earnings, there is no valuation cushion underneath.
Gustavson said at the June 23 conference that management would dedicate time on this call to the power business. The financing structure is the detail that matters, because project financing capping Chevron’s capital exposure is what separates one data center from a repeatable business.
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Should You Invest in Chevron?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Chevron, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Chevron alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
