Key Takeaways for CAVA Stock as of July 2026
- Fourteen buys, three outperforms, nine holds and one sell make up CAVA stock’s 24-analyst coverage as of July 8, 2026, with a mean target of $93 sitting 37% above the $68 close.
- May 19 brought a 38% adjusted EBITDA beat and raised full-year guidance.
- Modeling a mid-case exit by December 2030, TIKR values CAVA stock at $214, a 216% total return worth 29% annualized.
- Yet CAVA stock trades as if that beat never happened: adjusted EBITDA rose 38% last quarter and full-year guidance now sits at $181 million to $191 million, up from $176 million to $184 million.
Dig into how CAVA Group’s raised EBITDA guidance stacks up against Wall Street’s models on TIKR for free →
CAVA Stock Falls 29% From April Highs Despite a Guidance Raise
CAVA Group (CAVA) closed at $68 on July 8, 2026, down 29% from the $95 high it hit the day after its first-quarter report in April. That decline in CAVA stock stands in stark contrast to a quarter where revenue climbed 32% year over year and management raised full-year guidance across the board.
That growth came from a 459-restaurant base, up 20% year over year, fueled by 20 net new openings in the 16-week quarter and same-restaurant sales of 9.7%, with 6.8 points coming from guest traffic alone.
What drove the traffic was value discipline. CAVA priced roughly 1.4% higher in January while holding base bowl pricing flat, keeping cumulative price increases at just over half of CPI growth since 2019.
CFO Tricia Tolivar addressed the flow-through investors have pressed her on during the Q1 earnings call: “margin flow-through, generally, is about 40% on incremental activity and sales.” That figure explains how CAVA converted a 32% revenue gain into a 38% jump in adjusted EBITDA to $62 million, beating the $58 million analysts expected.
The beat pushed management to raise full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $181 million to $191 million from $176 million to $184 million, alongside a same-restaurant sales outlook lifted to 4.5% to 6.5% from 3% to 5%.
That expansion carries a trade-off. The April launch of Pomegranate-Glazed Salmon, the chain’s first seafood item, is expected to weigh on margin by roughly 100 basis points as it runs through the fourth quarter.
Even so, CAVA stock hasn’t followed the numbers. Shares gained 8% the morning after the print but have since given it back and more, sliding to $68 as worries over energy costs and geopolitical instability weigh on restaurant names broadly. New restaurants keep opening above 100% productivity, with systemwide average unit volumes reaching $3 million as CAVA closes in on its 500th location.
See how the salmon rollout and raised guidance could reshape CAVA’s margins on TIKR for free
Wall Street Rates CAVA Stock a Buy With a $93 Mean Target
Wall Street’s consensus on CAVA stock leans firmly bullish, with 14 buy ratings, three outperforms, nine holds and one sell across the 24 analysts tracked as of July 8, 2026. The mean target sits at $93, implying 37% upside from the current $68 close.
UBS raised its price target to $90 from $85 in June, upgrading the stock to buy and pointing to same-store sales performance peers have struggled to match. That call came weeks before the stock’s latest slide, and the mean target has held near $93 even as shares kept falling.
Wall Street Expects CAVA Stock’s Adjusted EBITDA to Keep Growing Through Fiscal 2027
CAVA Group’s adjusted EBITDA reached $62 million in the quarter ended April 19, 2026, up 38% year over year, lifting margin by 0.6 percentage points to 14.1% of revenue.
Consensus estimates call for adjusted EBITDA of $50 million in the June quarter, up 26% year over year, with margin holding near 15%.
That growth path continues into 2027. Estimates show EBITDA growing 18% in the September quarter, 18% again in December, 20% in the March quarter and 25% by June 2027, when margin is projected to reach 15%.
The next test lands with the June-quarter print, which will show whether the 40% incremental flow-through Tolivar described in May can absorb the roughly 100 basis point drag from the national salmon rollout.
TIKR’s $214 Target on CAVA Stock Holds if Margin Recovery Continues
TIKR’s mid-case model values CAVA stock at $214 by December 2030, implying a 216% total return from the current price of $68, or 29% annualized over 4.5 years.
That return profile places CAVA stock well ahead of the high-single-digit annualized gains typical of established restaurant chains.
The path there runs through the same operating leverage that showed up in the March quarter, when adjusted EBITDA grew 38% against 32% revenue growth. If that flow-through persists as CAVA scales past 500 restaurants and works through the salmon-related margin drag, the current $68 price leaves substantial room to close toward TIKR’s target.
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Should You Invest in CAVA Group, Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up CAVA Group, Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track CAVA Group, Inc. alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
