Key Takeaways for Airbnb Stock as of July 2026
- $157 is the mean target on Airbnb stock, just 5% above where shares trade today, built from 37 estimates split between 19 buys, 4 outperforms, 18 holds and 2 sells.
- TIKR’s mid-case model targets $324 by December 2030, a 118% total return and 19% annualized rate over 4.5 years.
- Stripping out Q1’s tax charge, Airbnb stock still looks mispriced on normalized EPS.
- On May 7, Airbnb raised full-year revenue growth guidance to the low-to-mid teens and lifted its EBITDA margin floor to 35%.
Airbnb Stock Beats Q1 Revenue Guidance but a Tax Charge Muted EPS Growth
Airbnb (ABNB) grew first-quarter 2026 revenue 18% year over year to $2.7 billion, topping the high end of its own guidance by 2 percentage points. Gross booking value rose 19% to $29 billion, the fourth straight quarter of sequential acceleration.
That momentum came from Reserve Now, Pay Later, which drove 20% of global GBV and pushed guests toward longer booking windows and pricier homes. Nights and Seats Booked still grew 9%, even against a 100 basis point drag from the Middle East conflict.
Beneath the top line, profitability told a messier story. Adjusted EBITDA rose 24% year over year to $519 million, but net income of $160 million absorbed a one-time hit.
CFO Ellie Mertz addressed that hit directly on the Q1 earnings call: “Net income was negatively impacted by a onetime adjustment of approximately $70 million to certain deferred tax assets as a result of changes to the U.S. Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax effective in Q1.” That charge, not the underlying business, is what held normalized EPS growth to just 8% for the quarter.
Mertz added that the drag should fade. She guided 2026’s effective tax rate to the high teens, down from 20% in 2025, largely on how foreign earnings are now taxed under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Consensus already models that reversal, with normalized EPS growth guided from single digits in Q1 toward the 40% to 55% range by early 2027.
Management used the print to raise the bar. Airbnb now expects full-year 2026 revenue growth to accelerate to the low-to-mid teens and adjusted EBITDA margin to reach at least 35%, a target it had flagged with less confidence heading into the quarter.
The company also leaned into capital return, repurchasing $1.1 billion of stock in Q1 after securing investment-grade credit ratings and completing a $2.5 billion bond offering.
Wall Street’s Tight Consensus Leaves Airbnb Stock Near Its Target Price
Nineteen analysts rate Airbnb stock a buy and four call it an outperform, against 18 holds and just two sells, a mix that has grown more bullish from 12 buys a year ago. The mean target across 37 estimates sits at $157, only 5% above the current price of $149, and the median target of $160 shows the range has compressed rather than widened.
That tightness follows a run from a 52-week low of $111 to within a few dollars of the $150 high. With sell-side coverage still expanding, the group has not pushed targets far past where the stock already trades.
Wall Street Expects Airbnb Stock’s Normalized EPS Growth to Accelerate Above 50% by 2027
Airbnb stock’s normalized EPS came in at $0.26 in the first quarter of 2026, up just 8% year over year after the one-time tax charge ate into the bottom line. The Street models a sharp rebound from there, with normalized EPS expected to grow 19% in the second quarter and 24% in the third as the tax drag rolls off. By the fourth quarter of 2026, normalized EPS growth is projected to jump to 42% year over year, then to 55% in the first quarter of 2027, the steepest single-quarter acceleration on the table.
If that first-quarter 2027 figure lands anywhere close to modeled growth, it would confirm the tax charge was the only thing masking Airbnb stock’s underlying earnings power.
TIKR’s Model Sees $324 Ahead for Airbnb Stock by 2030
TIKR’s mid-case model values Airbnb stock at $324 by December 2030, implying a 118% total return from the current price of $149, or 19% annualized over 4.5 years.
That return profile positions Airbnb as a compounder rather than a re-rating trade, with earnings growth and continued buybacks doing more of the work than any single quarter’s multiple expansion.
The case rests on dynamics already in play: a fee structure simplification lifting take rate, an EBITDA margin floor raised to at least 35%, and $1.1 billion of buybacks executed in a single quarter. Normalized EPS growth accelerating toward 55% as the tax charge rolls off adds one more lever to a target built on more than one driver.
Should You Invest in Airbnb, Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Airbnb, Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
