Key Takeaways for AppLovin Stock as of July 2026
- Twenty-nine of the 32 analysts covering AppLovin stock rate it a buy or outperform, against 3 holds and zero sells, with a $654 mean target 24% above the $528 price.
- Modeled out to December 2030, TIKR’s mid case values AppLovin stock at a $1,091 target, implying a 107% total return and an 18% annualized rate over the next 4.5 years.
- With EBITDA up 55% last quarter to a record 84.5% margin, AppLovin stock still looks undervalued against Street estimates that model growth cooling all the way to 31% by mid-2027.
AppLovin Stock’s Q1 EBITDA Hits a Record Margin as Axon Opens to the World
AppLovin (APP) posted first-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.84 billion on May 6, up 24.2% year over year in what CEO Adam Foroughi says has been 12 straight quarters without a slowdown. Axon, the company’s AI-powered engine, matches mobile game studios and a growing roster of e-commerce brands with the users most likely to convert.
Beneath the headline number, adjusted EBITDA reached $1.56 billion, up 54.9% year over year, good for an 84.5% margin.
Foroughi framed that combination as unusual on the Q1 earnings call, addressing the pace of growth and profitability together: “The rate of top line growth, profitability and free cash flow generation that we are delivering is exceptionally rare in public markets, and our team deserves all the credit for that.”
Free cash flow of $1.29 billion funded another $1 billion of buybacks in the quarter, trimming shares outstanding to 336 million while cash held at $2.76 billion. The company also had about $2.3 billion left on its repurchase authorization heading into the second quarter.
Guidance for that quarter calls for revenue of $1.915 billion to $1.945 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.615 billion to $1.645 billion, a margin of 84% to 85%.
That balance-sheet strength arrived just as AppLovin prepared its biggest structural shift in 14 years. In June, the company opened Axon to self-serve advertisers worldwide for the first time since its founding, ending referral-only access.
The consumer vertical, AppLovin’s 18-month-old e-commerce and lead-generation business, was already accelerating into that opening: April spend topped every prior peak month, including the busiest month of Q4, after March grew roughly 25% ahead of January.
Gaming, still the platform’s largest business, hasn’t slowed either. Foroughi said on the call it continues to outperform the 20% to 30% long-term growth range management set several years ago.
Wall Street’s Consensus Buy on AppLovin Stock Still Trails TIKR’s Own Target
Wall Street holds a consensus buy on AppLovin stock, with 29 of its 32 covering analysts at buy or outperform against just 3 holds and zero sells. The $654 mean target sits about 24% above the current $528 price, with individual estimates spanning a $406 low to an $860 high. That mean has held flat since June after climbing from $465 in mid-2025 to a peak of $738 last December, then pulling back through the first quarter.
The gap between the high and low estimate, more than $450, shows how unsettled the Street remains on where AppLovin stock’s growth eventually lands.
Wall Street Expects AppLovin Stock’s EBITDA Growth to Cool to 31% by Mid-2027
AppLovin’s EBITDA hit $1.56 billion in the first quarter of 2026, up 55% year over year for an 84.5% margin, the base the Street is now building estimates from. Guidance and consensus both point to $1.64 billion in the second quarter, up 61% from a year earlier, with the margin holding near 84%.
By the fourth quarter, consensus puts EBITDA at $2.00 billion on 43% growth and a record 85% margin. Growth then slows to 33% in the first quarter of 2027 and just 31% by the second, the steepest deceleration in the model.
The next test comes August 5, when AppLovin reports second-quarter results and investors learn whether the June Axon self-serve launch is already lifting the numbers behind the guide.
TIKR’s Model Values AppLovin Stock at $1,091, More Than Double Wall Street’s Target
TIKR’s mid-case model values AppLovin at $1,091 by December 2030, implying a 107% total return from the current price of $528, or an 18% annualized rate over the next 4.5 years.
That return puts AppLovin stock among the market’s more demanding growth compounders, where sustained margin expansion is one piece of a broader case built on new advertiser categories like lead generation and international reach beyond the largely Western base AppLovin serves today.
The case rests on what already showed up this quarter: a record margin and accelerating consumer-vertical spend, now compounding as the self-serve platform opens to advertisers worldwide for the first time in 14 years. None of that requires the deceleration built into current estimates to reverse, only to slow less than modeled.
Free cash flow of $1.29 billion and $2.3 billion of remaining buyback capacity give the company room to keep shrinking share count while it scales the platform opening, adding another lever to the return beyond the operating business alone.
See the full model behind AppLovin’s $1,091 target and 107% return on TIKR for free →
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
