Key Stats for CAVA Stock
- 52-Week Range: $43.41 to $101.50
- Current Price: $94.23
- Street Mean Target: ~$87
- Street High Target: $110
- TIKR Model Target (Mid): ~$277
- Earnings Date: May 12, 2026
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What Is the Market Telling Us About CAVA Right Now?
CAVA (CAVA) just crossed $1 billion in annual revenue for the first time, grew same restaurant sales 4% for the full year, and opened 72 net new locations in fiscal 2025. The stock is up roughly 58% year to date and is now trading above the street’s average price target of around $87. That is an unusual place to be heading into a quarterly print.
The setup heading into May 12 is genuinely interesting. Q4 same restaurant sales growth decelerated to 0.5%, a meaningful step down from the full-year average. Management guided 2026 same-restaurant sales growth of 3% to 5%, implying a significant reacceleration needs to begin in Q1. Whether that shows up in the numbers is the first thing every analyst will look at.
The second is margins. CAVA’s new salmon menu item, launched earlier this year, is expected to put pressure on restaurant-level profit margins by around 100 basis points. The company guided full-year restaurant-level margins of 23.7% to 24.2%, down from 24.4% in fiscal 2025. Investors will want to see that the margin compression is contained and not spreading into other cost lines.
The third is new restaurant productivity. CAVA ended fiscal 2025 with 439 locations and is targeting 74 to 76 net new openings in 2026, with a greater focus on suburban markets it has not previously operated in. AUVs at newer restaurants are running above $3 million, but the question is whether that productivity holds as the chain moves further from its core urban and coastal base.
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What Wall Street Is Watching Before the Print
The analyst community is split: 13 buys, 3 outperform, 12 holds, and 1 sell, which is notably more divided than the stock’s price performance would suggest. The mean target of around $87 implies the stock is slightly ahead of where consensus thinks it should be right now.
The bulls argue CAVA is a once-in-a-decade restaurant concept with a credible path to 1,000 locations by 2032, a clean balance sheet, and a brand that is genuinely resonating with consumers in a way fast casual concepts rarely achieve.
The bears point to a nearly 180x forward P/E and argue that at this valuation, any stumble in traffic or margin delivery gets punished quickly. Both sides will be watching closely on May 12.
CAVA Stock Financials: The Margin Trajectory Is the Story
Revenue has grown from $500 million in fiscal 2021 to $1.18 billion in fiscal 2025, a clean compounding story. What the chart shows more clearly than the top line is the recovery in operating margin. CAVA ran at negative 8% operating margins in 2021, negative 6% in 2022, and has since recovered to around 5% today. That improvement reflects a business that has been scaling into its cost structure, though it also shows how early-stage the profitability story still is.
Gross margins have stabilized around 37%, which is healthy for a restaurant concept but leaves limited room for cost surprises. The forward two-year EBITDA CAGR sits around 24%, and the forward revenue CAGR is around 22%. For a business trading at nearly 60x NTM EV/EBITDA, those growth rates need to hold consistently to justify the valuation.
The competitive context is relatively clean. Chipotle is the obvious comparable, having proven that a single-cuisine fast casual concept can scale to thousands of locations while maintaining both brand integrity and unit economics. CAVA’s Mediterranean positioning gives it a differentiated menu in a category without a dominant national player, which is the core of the long-term unit growth argument.
CAVA Is Priced for a Long Runway. Here Is What the Model Actually Shows.
TIKR’s mid-case model targets around $277 for CAVA, assuming around 18% annual revenue growth through 2030 and net income margins expanding toward 7%. From the current price of $94.23, that implies around 194% total return over roughly 4.7 years, or about 26% annualized. The high case gets you toward $515 by the full 2034 horizon.
What the Bulls Are Betting On:
- Same restaurant sales reaccelerate in Q1. A print at or above 3% would validate the full year guidance and signal that the Q4 deceleration was seasonal rather than structural.
- New restaurant productivity holds in suburban markets. If AUVs at newer locations stay above $2.8 million as CAVA moves beyond its core markets, the unit growth story stays intact through 1,000 locations.
- Margin compression from salmon stays contained. Management has quantified the headwind at around 100 basis points. If it does not spread to labor or other food costs, the full-year margin guidance holds.
What the Bears Are Watching:
- Traffic versus ticket. If the same restaurant sales growth is driven entirely by menu price increases rather than actual customer visits, the sustainability of the comp story comes into question quickly.
- The valuation leaves no room for error. At nearly 180x forward earnings, a miss on any of the three key metrics above could reprice this stock sharply, as it did when it fell from $100 to $43 in late 2025.
- Suburban expansion is unproven. CAVA has demonstrated its model works in urban and coastal markets. Whether the brand travels as effectively into middle America is a question the next 18 months of openings will answer.
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Should You Invest in CAVA?
CAVA is a legitimate long-term compounder with a differentiated brand, a proven unit economic model, and a credible expansion runway. It is also trading above what the average analyst thinks it is worth right now, heading into a quarter when key metrics need to reaccelerate after a soft Q4.
Put CAVA on your TIKR watchlist and set a reminder for May 12. Same restaurant sales growth, restaurant-level margins, and AUV trends in new markets are the three numbers that will tell you whether the 2026 thesis is on track or needs revisiting.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
