Key Stats for Boeing Stock
- Current Price: $223.38
- Street Target (Mean): ~$266
- TIKR Model Target (Mid): ~$1,332
- Potential Total Return (Mid): ~496%
- Annualized IRR (Mid): ~46% / year
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What Happened?
Boeing (BA) stock has spent most of 2026 trying to prove the worst is behind it. At $223.38, shares sit 12% below their 52-week high of $254.35, reached on January 27 when the company reported full-year 2025 results.
That day captured exactly where Boeing stands: record quarterly revenue of $23.9 billion, the highest annual delivery total since 2018, and a stock that still fell 1.21% because the market was bracing for cleaner profitability than the numbers delivered.
Bulls see a $682 billion backlog, more than 6,100 commercial orders, and a 737 MAX production line finally running cleanly. Bears see a defense segment still absorbing fixed-price contract losses, 2026 free cash flow guidance well below peak levels, and a China delivery freeze with no resolution in sight.
The question every investor is asking ahead of April 22 earnings: Is this recovery durable, or are these headwinds what CFO Jay Malave called “temporary in nature” on the January call, yet keep recurring?
On April 14, Boeing disclosed 143 commercial deliveries in Q1 2026, beating Airbus’s 114, the first quarterly delivery win over its European rival since approximately Q1 2019, before the 737 MAX grounding ended years of American dominance. The 737 MAX alone accounted for 114 of those 143 handovers, roughly 80% of the total. BA gained 2.06% the following session.
“We made significant progress on our recovery in 2025 and have set the foundation to keep our momentum going in the year ahead,” said Kelly Ortberg, Boeing President and Chief Executive Officer, in the company’s Q4 2025 earnings release filed with the SEC on January 27, 2026.
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Is Boeing Undervalued Today?
The valuation looks expensive on the surface, but the surface is misleading. Boeing trades at an NTM EV/EBITDA of 42.70x, a steep premium to peers Lockheed Martin at 13.75x, General Dynamics at 14.75x, and RTX at 18.97x, per TIKR’s Competitors page.
That gap is almost entirely a function of Boeing’s depressed near-term EBITDA, not an inflated enterprise value. As production rates normalize and the backlog converts to deliveries, the multiple compresses quickly even as the stock moves higher.
The Street largely agrees that the stock is cheap on a forward basis. At 4/17/26, 18 analysts rate BA a Buy, 4 Outperform, 4 Hold, and 1 Underperform, with a mean price target of $265.92, implying around 19% upside from the current price, per TIKR’s Street Targets page.
The path to that upside runs through free cash flow. Boeing’s Commercial Airplanes segment posted a $7.1 billion operating loss in full-year 2025, and Defense, Space & Security posted a $128 million operating loss, weighed down by KC-46A tanker charges.
On the Q4 earnings call, CFO Malave guided $1 billion to $3 billion in FCF for 2026. On a trailing twelve-month basis as of Q1 2026, FCF has already turned positive at $1,761.75 million, the first materially positive reading in years, per TIKR’s Multiples page.
The delivery momentum backs up the near-term case. Q1’s 143-aircraft total represents 10% year-over-year growth. Boeing is now producing the 737 MAX at 42 per month and is targeting 47 per month by mid-2026, with a full-year commercial delivery target of around 500 aircraft. If Boeing hits that number, operating leverage should push Commercial Airplanes meaningfully closer to breakeven.
China remains the clearest risk. In April 2025, Bloomberg reported that Beijing directed Chinese airlines to halt Boeing deliveries as part of the U.S.-China tariff escalation, effectively locking Boeing out of the world’s second-largest aviation market.
That freeze also means Boeing’s record $682 billion backlog was built almost entirely without China. Any resumption of Chinese orders would be upside down on an already full order book.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $223.38
- TIKR Model Target (Mid): ~$1,332
- Potential Total Return: ~496%
- Annualized IRR: ~46% / year
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The mid-case model projects around 8% annual revenue growth from 2025 through 2030, driven by the 737 MAX production ramp and the 787 Dreamliner scaling from 8 per month toward its targeted ceiling of 10. The margin driver is operating leverage as BCA losses narrow toward breakeven. Net income margins recover to around 4% in the mid-case by 2030, per TIKR’s model assumptions.
The primary downside risk is execution: another KC-46A charge, a 737 MAX 10 certification slip, or a repeat quality disruption would each put the FCF guidance range at risk and likely re-test the March lows. The upside scenario is less heroic than the return figures imply. Boeing doesn’t need China, a new aircraft program, or peak FCF immediately. It needs to deliver around 500 planes this year, contain defense losses, and certify the 737 MAX 10 on schedule. If those three things happen, the Street target of around $266 is likely conservative.
Conclusion
Watch free cash flow on April 22. CFO Malave guided $1 billion to $3 billion for the full year. Any indication that Q1 FCF is tracking at or above the implied quarterly run rate signals that the delivery surge is converting to cash, not just units counted. That single variable separates a confirmed recovery from another year of promising momentum without the cash to show for it.
Boeing is no longer the broken story it was in 2023. It has a $682 billion backlog, a 737 MAX line at multi-year highs, and management with a clear operational plan. At $223.38, the stock prices are at real execution risk. April 22 will begin to answer whether that risk is adequately compensated.
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Should You Invest in Boeing?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Boeing, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Boeing alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
