Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile shares fell 3.5% today after rival Viasat asked the FCC to deny AST’s request for more spectrum outside the U.S.
- Viasat’s petition targets an extra layer of AST’s overseas plans, and the stock’s bigger test is getting service live by the end of 2026.
- AST burned $1.14 billion of free cash flow in 2025, so any delay in reaching new markets is costly.
- AST trades at about 40x forward sales, well below its three-year average of 74x. Its year-end coverage target is the thing to watch.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is down 3.5% today after a rival satellite operator asked the FCC to block one of its spectrum requests.
The stock had rallied on Monday when Vodafone (VOD) and three other big European carriers said they’d explore a joint bid for satellite spectrum.
Viasat wants AST out of its band
In a [petition](LINK NEEDED) filed Monday, Viasat (VSAT) asked the FCC to deny the extra spectrum AST requested in July for use outside the U.S. Viasat called it “fatally flawed” for two reasons: some of the frequencies overlap with mobile-satellite services already in use, and others aren’t open to AST’s proposed operations under current FCC rules.
Viasat said AST can’t use the 1980-1995 MHz band without interfering with its own European Aviation Network.
AST says it will get each country’s approval before operating there, and that beam shaping and power adjustments can keep interference in check.
Why the timing matters
AST says it can tune across 1,150 MHz of its partners’ low- and mid-band spectrum worldwide, subject to approvals. So Viasat is going after an extra layer of AST’s overseas plans.
Still, every market counts, since Wall Street expects a steep climb from a small base.
Viasat’s petition goes after AST’s plans outside the U.S., so I don’t see today’s news moving the near-term estimates.
That ramp can’t come soon enough. AST has burned cash every year building its network, and the burn hit $1.14 billion in 2025.
And analysts still see $3.2 billion of cash burn before 2029.
TIKR tracks 14 analysts on AST SpaceMobile. How many say “Buy”?
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The real test is year-end
Plus, AST isn’t priced like it was a year ago: it trades at about 40x next-twelve-months sales, well below its 74x average over the past three years (it topped 205x last October!).
(It’s closer to 39x after today’s drop.) Either way, that multiple needs the revenue to show up on time.
AST said this morning it’s targeting initial, intermittent coverage before the end of 2026 in the U.S., Canada, Japan, the U.K. and Saudi Arabia. It expects to activate about 5,600 U.S. coverage cells by then, and more than 3,000 are already enabled.
My take: I wouldn’t sell AST over a petition aimed at extra overseas spectrum when the year-end launch is the much bigger test.
Of course, the FCC hasn’t ruled yet, and Europe’s own spectrum process is still ahead: the four carriers, Vodafone included, haven’t picked a satellite partner.
So what is AST SpaceMobile stock actually worth?
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