Key Takeaways:
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, BOOT stock could reach $223 by March 2028.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 23% from the current price of $182.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 10% growth over the next 2.2 years.
- Western Wear Surge: 8.4% same-store sales growth in Q2, driven by broad-based demand across all categories.
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Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT) just raised its long-term store target to 1,200 locations while posting second-quarter revenue of $505 million. The company grew sales 19% and almost doubled its total addressable market estimate from $40 billion to $58 billion.
CEO John Hazen is executing an aggressive expansion strategy centered on Western lifestyle and workwear.
- The company opened 30 new stores in the first half of fiscal 2026 and expects to add 40 more locations by year-end.
- Each new store generates approximately $3.2 million in annual sales and pays back its initial investment in under two years.
- Same-store sales jumped 8.4% in Q2, with women’s business up mid-teens and men’s up high single digits.
- The denim category surged in the high teens as Boot Barn solidifies its position as a denim destination.
- Merchandise margin expanded 80 basis points to 36.4%, while earnings per share climbed 44% to $1.37.
Despite extraordinary momentum, Boot Barn stock trades at $182, offering upside for investors who recognize the company’s position in Western retail.
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What the Model Says for Boot Barn Stock
We analyzed Boot Barn’s transformation into America’s largest Western and workwear retailer, driven by expanding digital capabilities.
The company is broadening beyond traditional Western wear. The launch of dedicated websites for exclusive brands Cody James and Hawx creates new marketing channels while strengthening brand authenticity.
With the Western lifestyle gaining mainstream appeal, Boot Barn is capturing market share as the category leader.
This geographic diversity provides resilience, while new store openings create a consistent 100-basis-point tailwind to annual comps.
Using a forecast of 14.5% annual revenue growth and 13.6% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $223 within 2.2 years. This assumes a 20.6x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents compression from Boot Barn’s historical P/E averages of 23.7x (one year) and 20.2x (five years). The lower multiple acknowledges potential moderation in consumer spending and the execution risk of opening 12-15% new stores annually.
The real value lies in sustaining the Western lifestyle trend, expanding exclusive brand penetration, and maintaining store-level economics.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for BOOT stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 14.5%
Boot Barn’s growth centers on new store expansion and comparable-store sales growth.
- The company achieved 19% total revenue growth in Q2, driven by 64 new stores opened in the trailing 12 months and 8.4% consolidated same-store sales.
- Management expects to open 70 new stores in fiscal 2026, representing 15% unit growth.
- The stores opened over the last six years are providing approximately 100 basis points of annual comp tailwind.
- Beyond new stores, the company is seeing broad-based strength across all major merchandise categories.
- Women’s boots and apparel led with mid-teens comps, while denim posted high-teens growth.
- The e-commerce business grew 14.4%, with the bootbarn.com site up in the high teens, driven by new AI-powered search functionality and dedicated brand websites.
2. Operating margins: 13.6%
Boot Barn is expanding profitability while scaling operations.
The company delivered 11.2% operating margin in Q2, up from 9.4% in the prior year. This performance reflects an 80-basis-point increase in merchandise margin and a 120-basis-point reduction in SG&A.
Exclusive brand penetration increased 290 basis points to 41% of sales, driving the margin improvement.
Management is targeting a mid-teens operating margin over the long term. The company has proven ability to maintain margins despite tariff headwinds through factory negotiations and selective pricing on exclusive brands after the holiday season.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 20.6x
The market values Boot Barn at 24.2x earnings. We assume the P/E will compress to 20.6x over our forecast period.
Near-term uncertainty around consumer spending and tariff impacts weighs on the multiple. The company must successfully navigate potential economic headwinds while maintaining its aggressive pace of store openings at 12-15% annually.
As the Western lifestyle trend continues and Boot Barn executes its 1,200-store vision, the company should command a premium multiple. The expanded $58 billion total addressable market provides a long runway for growth.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Western retailers face fashion cycles and pressures on consumer discretionary spending. Here’s how Boot Barn stock might perform under different scenarios through March 2028:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 11.2% and net income margins compress to 9.5%, investors still see a 16.4% total return (3.7% annually).
- Mid Case: With 12.5% growth and 10.2% margins, we expect a total return of 48.4% (10.0% annually).
- High Case: If Western wear adoption accelerates and Boot Barn maintains 10.7% margins while growing at 13.7%, returns could hit 83.5% total (15.7% annually).
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The range reflects execution on store expansion, exclusive brand penetration reaching 50%, and sustaining merchandise margin gains.
In the low case, consumer spending weakens or the Western trend moderates.
In the high case, the Western lifestyle trend exceeds expectations, digital channels accelerate faster than anticipated, and exclusive brand margins improve ahead of schedule.
How Much Upside Does Boot Barn Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
