Key Takeaways for Formula One Group Stock as of September 2026
- Calendar Rebuilt: Formula One Group stock’s parent restored the 2026 season to 23 races by moving Bahrain’s GP to Malaysia on October 4, but Qatar and Abu Dhabi still hang on a mid-September call.
- Target Ceiling: The Street’s mean target sits 26% above Formula One Group stock’s $96 close.
- Model Verdict: TIKR’s mid-case model prices Formula One Group stock at $147 by year-end 2030, a 54% total return worth 11% a year.
- Coverage Widens: Analyst coverage grew from 15 names a year ago to 16 today, and the last standing sell rating has disappeared.
Why Formula One Group Stock Is Still Waiting on a Full Race Calendar
Formula One Group (FWONK) stock is trying to close a gap that opened back in April, when the Iran war forced Formula One to cancel its races in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and knocked four grands prix off the 2026 calendar.
On July 26, the sport confirmed that Malaysia’s Sepang circuit would host a rescheduled Bahrain Grand Prix on October 4, officially billed as the Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia, restoring the season to 23 races instead of 22. That fix arrived too late to help the second quarter, when Formula One’s revenue fell 38% year over year to $764 million and the mix pulled Liberty Media’s overall Q2 revenue to $934 million, just below the $942 million analysts expected.
CFO Brian Wendling laid out the mechanics on the Q2 earnings call: with only 8 of 22 assumed races staged by mid-year, the company had recognized just 36% of season-based revenue, versus 46% at the same point in 2025. CEO Stefano Domenicali framed the Malaysia swap as proof the business can route around disruption rather than absorb it: “It once again shows that we can adapt, find solution and deliver incredible results for the sport.”
The bigger question sits weeks out. Qatar and Abu Dhabi are still scheduled to close the season in late November and early December, both already sold out, but Domenicali set a mid-September deadline to decide whether they can go ahead given the region’s instability. If they can’t, the season finishes in Europe instead. Every week that decision slides is a week the market has to hold two different full-year revenue paths in its head at once, and that’s the tension sitting underneath Formula One Group stock right now.
Liberty Media’s $600 Million Bond Deal Buys Formula One Group Room to Breathe
The calendar isn’t the only place Liberty Media moved to steady the ground under Formula One Group stock. On August 11, it priced $600 million of 2.375% convertible senior notes due 2032, with initial purchasers holding a 13-day option for another $90 million.
The conversion price of $138.68 sits 35% above the stock’s pre-deal close of $102.73, and the proceeds are earmarked for capped call transactions tied to Liberty Media’s existing 2.25% convertible notes due 2027, plus repayment of those same notes.
Shares slipped 1.1% to $101.54 the day the pricing hit the tape, a mild reaction for a deal that pushes a 2027 maturity out to 2032 without adding near-term dilution risk. Paired with $1.5 billion in cash and liquid investments and a net leverage ratio of 3.4x as of June 30, the balance sheet gives Liberty Media room to ride out whatever the Middle East calendar decides.
Formula One Group Stock’s Target Keeps Climbing While the Price Falls Behind
Analysts covering Formula One Group stock carry 11 buys, 3 outperforms, and 2 holds as of September 4, with no underperform or sell ratings left on the table. The mean target sits at $120 against a $96 close, a 26% gap that has to close through either a higher price or a lower target.
That gap has only widened. Close to a year ago, on September 30, 2025, the mean target stood at $116 against a $105 close, a 10.5% premium. Coverage has grown from 13 analysts to 16 over that stretch, and the lone sell rating that persisted through the first quarter of 2026 has since dropped off the table entirely. Analysts kept raising their number through a stock that fell from $105 to a low of $85 in March before climbing back to $96, which means the Street’s conviction in the long-term growth story never wavered even as the calendar disruption hit the reported numbers.
TIKR Values Formula One Group Stock at $147 Through 2030
TIKR’s mid-case model values Formula One Group stock at $147 by year-end 2030, implying a 54% total return from the current price of $96, or 11% annualized over 4.3 years.
That annualized rate sits ahead of what a mature, ex-growth media asset typically returns, and it credits Formula One with continuing to compound attendance, sponsorship, licensing, and hospitality revenue faster than the broader sports-rights market even through a compressed race calendar.
The model’s confidence lines up with what the Street has been doing all year: raising targets through a stock that fell before it recovered. Sold-out Paddock Club capacity through 2028, record attendance at 5 of the season’s first 10 races, and a fixed 23-race calendar all point toward the second half closing the gap that the four missing spring races opened.
One more number sharpens that verdict. Formula One Group’s NTM EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed from 29x in mid-2025 to 20x now, a 29% de-rating even as the Street pushed its target higher. That means TIKR’s $147 target isn’t underwriting a re-rating back to where the multiple started. It’s underwriting the same discounted multiple applied to EBITDA that keeps growing as the calendar normalizes.
Should You Invest in Formula One Group?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Formula One Group stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
