Key Takeaways for Booking Holdings Stock as of July 2026
- 35 analysts cover Booking Holdings stock, with 24 buys, 7 holds and no sells, and a mean target of $224, putting 23% implied upside from the current $183 price.
- TIKR’s mid-case model values Booking Holdings stock at $366 by December 2030, a 100% total return from today’s price, or 17% annualized over 4.5 years.
- Trading well below its $234 target-price-to-price ratio of a year ago, Booking Holdings stock looks undervalued on EBITDA, which grew 19% year over year in Q1 to $1.29 billion against a Street estimate of $1.25 billion.
- Wells Fargo cut its price target on Booking Holdings stock to $214 from $215 on June 30, citing Middle East conflict uncertainty that management estimates cost roughly 2 percentage points of Q1 room night growth.
Booking Holdings Stock Absorbs a Middle East Hit and Still Beats
Booking Holdings (BKNG) posted first-quarter 2026 revenue of $5.53 billion, up 16% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of $1.29 billion, up 19% and ahead of the $1.25 billion Street estimate. Room nights grew 6% to 338 million even as the company estimates the Middle East conflict, which began in late February, cut room night and gross booking growth by about 2 percentage points.
Gross bookings rose 15% to $53.8 billion. CFO Ewout Steenbergen told analysts on the Q1 call that the effect reached beyond the region itself: “The impact of the conflict was also felt outside the Middle East region, as we saw changes in broader travel patterns, particularly in transit corridors, such as the one between Europe and Asia.” That spillover is why guidance moved, not just the direct exposure.
U.S. room night growth accelerated for a fourth straight quarter to the low teens, and the direct booking channel held in the mid-60% range. Connected Trip transactions, meaning bookings spanning more than one travel vertical, grew in the high teens and now make up a low double-digit share of Booking.com’s total transactions.
Management trimmed full-year revenue growth guidance to high single digits from low double digits and set second-quarter room night growth at 2% to 4%, with a roughly 3-point drag still baked in for the quarter.
Wells Fargo responded on June 30 by cutting its Booking Holdings stock price target to $214 from $215, pointing to travel demand uncertainty tied to the conflict and expecting a 3% cut to the company’s full-year EPS estimate.
Booking repurchased $3.6 billion of stock in the quarter, the largest buyback in company history, while ending March with $16.5 billion in cash and investments.
Wall Street’s Split Verdict on Booking Holdings Stock Heading Into Summer
The average analyst rating on Booking Holdings stock is a buy, with 24 of 35 covering analysts at buy or strong buy, 7 at hold, and none recommending a sale. The mean price target sits at $224, roughly 23% above the current $183 share price, down from $232 as recently as March as multiple firms trimmed targets on Middle East-related demand risk.
Wells Fargo’s June 30 cut to $214 came alongside a similar reduction for Expedia, with the bank citing expected softness in second-half travel demand tied to the conflict.
Wall Street Expects Booking Holdings Stock’s EBITDA to Keep Growing Through 2027
Booking Holdings posted $1.29 billion in adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter, up 19% year over year and ahead of the $1.25 billion Street estimate, with margins of 23%.
Analysts expect second-quarter EBITDA of $2.55 billion, up 5% year over year, before accelerating to $4.60 billion in the third quarter, an 9% gain.
Full-year 2026 EBITDA is projected at roughly $9.51 billion combining the remaining quarters, with the March 2027 quarter estimate at $1.51 billion, up 17% from the prior year period. By June 2027, quarterly EBITDA is expected to reach $2.97 billion, a 16% increase.
The deceleration into mid-2026 reflects the Middle East drag management flagged for the full second quarter, with estimates already assuming a recovery begins in the back half of the year. Whether that recovery materializes on schedule is the threshold that determines if the current estimate path holds.
TIKR’s $366 Target on Booking Holdings Stock Assumes Guidance Holds, Not a Turnaround
TIKR’s mid-case model values Booking Holdings stock at $366 by December 2030, implying a 100% total return from the current price of $183, or 15% annualized over 4.5 years.
That annualized return sits above Booking Holdings’ own long-term guidance of 15% adjusted EPS growth, suggesting the model is pricing full execution on management’s own targets rather than a bull-case surprise.
The path hinges on the EBITDA reacceleration already baked into estimates for the back half of 2026 and into 2027, following the Middle East-driven dip flagged for the second quarter.
With Q1 EBITDA growth of 19% already beating estimates and a record $3.6 billion in Q1 buybacks continuing to compress the share count, the model does not require conditions to improve beyond what the company has already guided to.
Should You Invest in Booking Holdings Inc.?
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