Key Stats for Walmart Stock
- Current Price: $111.35
- Target Price (Mid): ~$152
- Street Target: ~$127
- Potential Total Return: ~36%
- Annualized IRR: ~7.5% / year
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
“For Walmart, Replacing Humans With Robots Is a Multibillion-Dollar Struggle,” reads the headline of a Wall Street Journal report on Walmart (WMT), published before the October 9 session. TheFly’s summary describes a decade-long automation push marked by costly, unsuccessful robotics trials and operational bottlenecks. Shares closed at $111.35 on October 9, up 0.71% on the day and 7.15% above their September 30 close.
The report lands beside Walmart’s fastest-growing business. According to Walmart’s investor relations materials, U.S. marketplace net sales grew more than 50% in the quarter ended July 31. Nearly 50% of the marketplace business flowed through Walmart Fulfillment Services (WFS), the company’s warehousing service for third-party sellers.
Walmart’s Marketplace Leans on Its Fulfillment Network
TheFly’s summary does not say which facilities stumbled, but WFS runs on Walmart’s fulfillment centers. Manish Joneja, Walmart’s SVP and Global Head of Marketplace and Fulfillment Services, explained why sellers use them at the Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference on September 16: “we see 50% high conversion when an item is in WFS. A seller sees 15% lower cost when it’s in WFS.”
He added that items using both WFS and ads sometimes see 5x growth in gross merchandise value (GMV), meaning total sales value. On a single item, Walmart can collect a referral fee, fulfillment fees, and ad spending.
Joneja also addressed the comparable-sales slowdown that, along with softer third-quarter guidance, weighed on shares in August. “Same-store comps are the right comps for traditional retail,” he said, but Walmart’s stores now double as fulfillment points. He estimated that 95% of the U.S. sits within a three-hour delivery range of its stores. He also said Walmart is starting to place seller inventory in store backrooms so it can ship with grocery orders.
See historical and forward estimates for Walmart stock (It’s free!) >>>
Walmart’s Capex Keeps Running Above Estimates
Joneja said Walmart can extend its supply chain to sellers “without significant investment” because that base already exists. Expanding and automating that base is another matter:
- Capital expenditure reached $26.64 billion in fiscal 2026.
- Analysts expect around $29 billion this year.
- Actual capex has exceeded the Street estimate in each of the last five reported quarters.
The cash picture is split. Consensus expects free cash flow to fall about 21% this fiscal year. Management said on its August 20 call that it expects double-digit free cash flow growth.
TheFly’s summary of the Journal report also notes that Amazon (AMZN) is advancing its own warehouse automation, which raises the stakes on delivery speed. Walmart opened its fifth next-generation fulfillment center, in Stockton, California, on October 8 and said WFS will use the space for marketplace items.
“Our business model is only getting stronger and more durable,” John David Rainey, Walmart’s EVP and CFO, said in the August 20 earnings release. The capex trend tests that claim. Durable profit growth needs automation that lowers costs, not only adds capacity.
See how Walmart performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $111.35
- Target Price (Mid): ~$152
- Potential Total Return: ~36%
- Annualized IRR: ~7.5% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Walmart stock (It’s free!) >>>
TIKR’s mid-case reaches around $152 by January 31, 2031. That is about a 36% total return from $111.35, or around 7.5% a year over 4.3 years. It trails the stock’s 19.1% annual return over the past five years.
Consensus revenue rises from $706.4 billion in fiscal 2026 to around $892 billion by fiscal 2031, roughly 5% a year. Normalized EPS climbs from $2.64 to around $4.14, about 9% a year. Higher-margin marketplace, fulfillment, and ad revenue are one reason earnings can outgrow sales.
The main risk is that CapEx stays above plan while automation underdelivers. Upside comes from marketplace growth holding near current rates. The downside comes from further multiple compression.
Conclusion
Walmart’s third-quarter report, expected November 19 but not yet confirmed by the company, is the first check. Marketplace growth above 50% with capex landing near estimates would support the network. Another capex overshoot alongside slowing marketplace growth would show up in free cash flow first.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
So what is Walmart stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Walmart could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Analyze Walmart on TIKR Free →
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
