Key Stats for United Rentals Stock
- Past-Year-to-Date Performance: 6%
- 52-Week Range: $526 to $1,021
- Valuation Model Target Price $1,027
- Implied Upside: 20%
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What Happened?
United Rentals stock is up about 6% year to date, recently trading near $854 per share, as investors responded to record fourth quarter results, constructive 2026 guidance, and expanded shareholder return plans.
The early year strength reflects growing confidence that large project activity and specialty rental growth can sustain earnings momentum despite margin headwinds.
The stock moved higher after the company reported Q4 total revenue up 2.8% year over year to $4.2 billion, with rental revenue rising 4.6% to a record $3.58 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.9 billion with a 45.2% margin, and adjusted EPS came in at $11.09, reinforcing profitability even as delivery and repositioning costs remained elevated.
CEO Matthew Flannery said the company delivered “another year of record revenue and EBITDA” and guided 2026 total revenue to $16.8 billion to $17.3 billion, implying 6.2% growth ex used at midpoint and signaling another year of profitable expansion.
Institutional activity has also supported sentiment. Raiffeisen Bank International AG increased its position by 289.3% in Q3 to 11,972 shares worth $11.3 million, while Public Sector Pension Investment Board boosted its stake by 3,094.3% to 155,273 shares valued at $148.23 million.
Assetmark Inc. raised its holdings by 332.6%, and State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund D added 5.6%, contributing to institutional ownership of roughly 96.26%.
While some firms trimmed exposure, including Advisors Capital Management, Aberdeen Group, Vanguard Group, Shell Asset Management, ProShare Advisors, and CIBC World Markets, United Rentals reinforced capital discipline by authorizing a $5.0 billion share repurchase program representing up to about 8.7% of outstanding shares and increasing its quarterly dividend to $1.97 per share, or $7.88 annualized.
Together, record results, visible 2026 growth, and aggressive capital returns have helped drive the stock’s year to date advance.
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Is United Rentals Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 6.8%
- Operating Margins: 26.6%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 16x
United Rentals’ outlook reflects sustained demand from infrastructure, nonresidential construction, manufacturing reshoring, and data center expansion rather than a short term cyclical rebound.
Management noted its project pipeline is the largest in company history, with large projects and specialty rentals expected to drive most 2026 growth while local markets remain steady.
Specialty continues to be a structural growth engine, supported by geographic expansion and cross selling across power, trench safety, fluid solutions, and other higher margin categories.
Growth CapEx of roughly $1.1 billion in 2026 is focused primarily on specialty expansion and large project support, reinforcing the company’s one stop shop strategy.
Margins are expected to remain flat at the midpoint of guidance despite repositioning cost pressure, reflecting cost actions designed to protect profitability and leverage network density.
With projected 2026 revenue of $16.8 billion to $17.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $7.575 billion to $7.825 billion, earnings durability remains intact.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $1,027, implying about 20% upside from current levels near $854.
At current levels, United Rentals appears modestly undervalued, with future performance driven by specialty mix expansion, large project execution, disciplined capital allocation, and sustained industrial demand throughout 2026 rather than multiple expansion alone.
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