Key Stats for MSI Stock
- Year-to-Date Performance: 23%
- 52-Week Range: $359 to $492
- Valuation Model Target Price: $589
- Implied Upside: 25%
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What Happened?
Motorola Solutions stock has climbed about 23% year to date, recently trading near $472 per share as investors reacted to record fourth quarter results and strengthened 2026 guidance. Shares are now trading near the upper end of their $359 to $492 52 week range as confidence builds around earnings durability and backlog visibility.
The rally accelerated after the company delivered stronger than expected Q4 results and issued upbeat 2026 guidance.
Q4 revenue grew 12% with record non GAAP operating margin of 32% and non GAAP EPS of $4.59. Full year revenue rose 8% to $11.7 billion, operating cash flow reached a record $2.8 billion, and backlog climbed to an all time high of $15.7 billion, up $1 billion year over year.
Management guided 2026 revenue to approximately $12.7 billion and non GAAP EPS between $16.70 and $16.85, while planning for about 100 basis points of operating margin expansion despite a $60 million tariff headwind.
Operational strength was broad based. Products and SI revenue rose 11% in Q4, Software and Services grew 15%, and the company secured major wins including a $201 million 10 year P25 services renewal in Maryland and an $86 million command center order from an international customer.
As CEO Greg Brown stated, “Q4 was an exceptional quarter across the board with record revenue in both segments, record operating earnings and record operating margins,” reinforcing confidence in sustainable growth entering 2026.
Institutional positioning further supported sentiment. Vanguard increased its stake to 22.17 million shares representing about 13% of the company, while Fiera Capital raised its position by 55%, NEOS Investment Management increased its stake by 59%, Cidel Asset Management lifted holdings by 71%, and M&G PLC added 11% to its stake according to recent filings.
Although JPMorgan reduced its position by 22%, institutional investors collectively own about 84% of the stock, signaling continued long term sponsorship behind shares.
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Is MSI Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 7%
- Operating Margins: 32%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 28x
Revenue is projected to rise from about $11.7 billion in 2025 toward roughly $16 billion by 2030, reflecting steady backlog conversion, expanding software penetration, and continued modernization of public safety communications rather than cyclical hardware spikes.
Margin expansion toward 32% assumes continued mix shift toward higher margin software, services, video analytics, and AI driven command center solutions.
With Software and Services already delivering over 32% operating margins, incremental adoption of APX NEXT applications, SVX body worn assistant devices, and AI Assist Suites priced at $99 per user per month supports recurring revenue expansion.
Backlog execution remains the central earnings driver in 2026. Record backlog of $15.7 billion, double digit product order growth, and guidance for approximately $12.7 billion in revenue this year provide strong forward visibility. Continued growth in Command Center software, cloud video adoption, and defense related Silvus demand further reinforce durable operating leverage.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $589, implying about 25% upside from current levels near $472, indicating the stock appears modestly undervalued.
Performance in 2026 will likely be driven by backlog monetization, software mix expansion, AI platform adoption, and sustained margin discipline rather than rapid revenue acceleration.
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How Much Upside Does Motorola Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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