Meta Platforms (META) is facing a new UK investigation. On Tuesday, October 6, Ofcom opened a probe into whether Meta properly assessed the safety risks of Instagram Instants before launching the feature in May. Instants lets users send photos that disappear after a single view. That’s the kind of feature the Online Safety Act watches closely for child safety.
Meta said it carried out a risk assessment, briefed Ofcom several times before launch, and will cooperate. This is Meta’s second open Ofcom case. The other is a probe into how Meta answered the regulator’s information requests.
What Ofcom Is Testing
The Online Safety Act requires platforms to assess the risks of major changes before rollout. “Significant changes to platforms must be risk assessed before they’re launched,” Ofcom enforcement director George Lusty said.
So the case turns on process. Did Meta assess Instants before launch, and does that assessment hold up?
Sizing the Worst Case for Meta Stock
Fines under the Act can reach £18 million or 10% of qualifying worldwide revenue, whichever is greater. Meta brought in $228.25 billion over the last 12 months (LTM, through the June quarter). That’s up from $200.97 billion in 2025 and nearly double the $117.93 billion it made in 2021. For illustration, 10% of that trailing revenue is about $23 billion, compared with about $16 billion using 2024 sales.
Cash tells a different story. Free cash flow peaked at $54.07 billion in 2024, fell to $46.11 billion in 2025, and sits at $40.98 billion LTM as Meta pours money into AI data centers. Revenue rose 39% over that stretch while free cash flow fell 24%.
That illustrative comparison now looks more demanding: 10% of revenue equals about 56% of trailing free cash flow, versus 30% using 2024 figures. The actual ceiling depends on the applicable revenue base and accounting period. Where group entities are held jointly and severally liable, Ofcom can include worldwide revenue from unregulated activities too. No penalty has been proposed in this investigation.
Ofcom Let Snap Off With a Fix
When Ofcom found gaps in the risk assessment of Snap (SNAP), it let Snap file a revised version and closed the case on January 15 with no fine. Meta starts from a tougher spot (a formal investigation, not a remediation period). Still, the Snap case shows Ofcom reaches for compliance before penalties.
The longer-term cost is speed. Europe, which includes the UK, generated $46.57 billion for Meta in 2025. That’s 23% of revenue, and it grew 21%, in line with the company overall.
Stricter enforcement of the UK’s existing pre-launch risk-assessment duties could slow some feature launches there. Any effect on Meta’s wider European rollout would depend on how it implements those requirements.
My Opinion for Meta Stock
I don’t see a fine here that dents Meta stock. The precedent matters more than the penalty. Watch for Ofcom’s provisional decision, which would name any proposed fine, and for whether Meta changes Instants in the UK before then.
Curious how an illustrative $23 billion fine compares with Meta’s cash pile, or how fast Europe is really growing? Pull up the same revenue, free cash flow, and regional data on TIKR for free. Learn more here.
So what is Meta Platforms stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what META stock could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Value Meta Platforms, Inc. for free→
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
