Key Stats for Affirm Stock
- Current Price: $74.75
- Target Price (Mid): ~$136
- Street Target: ~$99
- Potential Total Return: ~82%
- Annualized IRR: ~13.5% / year
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What Happened?
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) closed at $74.75 on October 5, 2026, up 5.62% in a session when buy now, pay later stocks moved higher as a group; coverage cited sector strength and recent partnership news, not a same-day company announcement. That leaves shares 0.43% above their $74.43 close on December 31, 2025, after a 48.79% peak-to-trough drop over the past year that bottomed on March 27.
Underneath that flat line, the Affirm Card reaches only 19% of active consumers, according to Affirm’s investor relations materials. CEO Max Levchin’s September 8 remarks at a Goldman Sachs conference show what the company is building to widen that reach.
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Only 19% of Affirm’s Customers Use Its Card
Affirm Card ended fiscal Q4 (quarter ended June 30) with 5.2 million active cardholders out of 27.8 million active consumers, and Card gross merchandise volume (GMV), the value of purchases on it, grew 124% to $2.8 billion in the quarter. Cardholders spend roughly twice what the average customer does, and Levchin said “the active card base as big as it is, it’s not even 10 million.” Because merchants promote Affirm at checkout, he added, acquisition comes at “something that resembles zero CAC,” meaning customer acquisition cost is close to nothing.
The next layer comes from DT1, an internal lab Levchin now works with several times a week. Its largest project is brand-sponsored promotions, where a brand sold through a retailer funds a 0% APR loan; Levchin said 0% offers typically lift a merchant’s basket size by something like 80% and conversion by about 25% on higher-ticket purchases. “It’s now live enough where it’s running hundreds of millions of dollars of volume,” he said, a management description rather than a disclosed figure, and small next to more than $50 billion of fiscal 2026 GMV.
He also described an unnamed DT1 product where consumer spend has reached $8,000, about double the cardholder level, though “it’s not a huge group just yet.” Credit is the constraint: 0% loans earn no consumer interest, and Levchin said the underwriting behind them “has almost no room for error.”
Revenue Estimates Rose 8% in 2026 While Investors Paid Less per Dollar of Earnings
Since December 31, 2025, consensus fiscal 2027 revenue has risen 8% to $5.48 billion, as the number of contributing analysts grew from 26 to 32. Over the same period, the NTM P/E on normalized earnings fell from about 23x to about 20x, partly because the 12-month window rolled into a higher-earnings year. With the price nearly unchanged, each dollar of expected earnings now costs about 14% less, even as new merchants such as Crate & Barrel Holdings, which signed on September 29, keep arriving.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $74.75
- Target Price (Mid): ~$136
- Potential Total Return: ~82%
- Annualized IRR: ~13.5% / year
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TIKR’s mid case, the balanced scenario, values Affirm at around $136 by June 30, 2031, an ~82% total return from $74.75, or about 13.5% a year over 4.7 years. For context, consensus calls for $6.84 billion of fiscal 2028 revenue and normalized net margins of around 25% in fiscal 2027 and 27% in fiscal 2028. Card attach rising past 19% and brand-sponsored deals reaching scale would support the mid case, while a credit turn in the 0% book could compress the multiple further.
Conclusion
The TIKR model favors loading up over selling, provided credit holds, and the next check is Affirm’s report for the quarter ended September 30 (fiscal Q1 results came out on November 6, 2025). Card attach above 19% would show the base widening, and Levchin said that once brand-sponsored promotions reach “the $1 billion scale,” he would find a way to present them to investors. A slip in attach or rising credit costs would suggest the lower multiple was earned.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
