Key Takeaways
- Novavax shares fell 12% on Tuesday after the WHO said the risk from a possible plague case in Russia is low, giving back most of Monday’s 20% jump.
- Novavax has no plague vaccine, so the spike had nothing to do with its sales.
- Analysts expect Novavax’s revenue to fall from $1.12 billion in 2025 to $373 million in 2026.
- Even after the drop, the stock trades at more than 8x forward sales, far above its five-year average of 2.3x.
Novavax (NVAX) shares sank 12% on Tuesday. That gave back most of Monday’s 20% spike after the World Health Organization said the risk from a possible plague case in Russia is low.
What exactly happened
Last week, a 28-year-old worker at a Russian anti-plague lab in Irkutsk, Siberia, died of pneumonia of undetermined origin. The WHO is investigating whether it was pneumonic plague.
Traders bet on emergency government vaccine orders, and Novavax jumped 20% on Monday.
Then on Tuesday, WHO spokesperson Christian Lindmeier told reporters that the WHO had tested the worker’s contacts and found no plague. He said the WHO “estimates the risk to be moderate to low for Irkutsk, a low risk for the Russian Federation as a whole and very low for the WHO European region.”
Moderna (MRNA) similarly rose 7% on Monday and fell 6% today.
Novavax doesn’t make a plague vaccine
Here’s the thing: plague is caused by a bacterium, and it can be cured with antibiotics if it’s caught early. Novavax’s main product is Nuvaxovid, a protein-based COVID vaccine. The company has no plague vaccine at all.
So on Monday, the market priced in sales of a product Novavax doesn’t have and isn’t developing.
Take the scare away and you’re left with Novavax’s partnered COVID business. That’s royalties and milestone payments from partners like Sanofi (SNY) and Takeda, plus the malaria vaccine commercialized by the Serum Institute of India. Analysts expect revenue to shrink from $1.12 billion in 2025 to $373 million this year and $266 million in 2027.
A tragic death in Siberia doesn’t change those estimates, and the WHO’s all-clear doesn’t either.
What’s next
With sales shrinking, what matters is how long Novavax’s cash lasts. And things don’t look great…
The next big check is a $75 million milestone payment from Sanofi. Novavax expects it when it finishes handing over its manufacturing technology in mid-2027.
The stock isn’t cheap, even after today. At Monday’s close, Novavax traded at 9.9x forward sales. That’s the top of its five-year range and more than four times its 2.3x average, which of course is skyrocketing because future sales look so weak.
Bottom line: Monday’s spike was a scare trade, and once officials gave the all-clear, most of it was gone in a single session.
And even if the WHO decides to upgrade their threat assessment…it’s not clear why Novavax would even be a company they’d turn to.
So what is Novavax stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
