TotalEnergies Stock: Why This Energy Giant Could Return 50% in the Next 5 Years

Key Takeaways:

• TotalEnergies SE is leveraging its integrated oil, gas, and LNG portfolio while rapidly expanding in power and renewables, aiming to balance profitable hydrocarbons with long‑term energy‑transition growth.
• TTE stock could reasonably reach €93 per share by December 2029, based on our valuation assumptions.
• This implies a total return of nearly 50% from today’s price of €63, with an annualized return of 10.4% over the next 4 years.

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TotalEnergies SE (TTE) is positioning itself as a leading multi‑energy major by combining an efficient upstream portfolio with fast‑growing LNG and integrated power operations. The company is channeling capital into high‑return oil and gas projects while also building scale in renewables, EV charging, and flexible power generation.

This strategy has supported solid share price performance, with TTE rising from about $53 one year ago to $62 recently as earnings, cash flow, and shareholder returns have remained robust. With a strong balance sheet and a clear capital‑return framework, TotalEnergies is well placed to keep rewarding shareholders even as it invests in the energy transition.

Here’s why TotalEnergies SE stock could provide attractive returns through 2029 as it maintains disciplined hydrocarbon investment while scaling LNG and low‑carbon businesses.

What the Model Says for TotalEnergies SE Stock

We analyzed the upside potential for TotalEnergies SE stock using valuation assumptions based on its diversified upstream assets, leading LNG position, and growing power and renewables portfolio.

Based on estimates of -2.0% annual revenue growth, 13.7% operating margins, and a normalized P/E multiple of 7.8x, the model projects TotalEnergies SE stock could rise from $63 to $70 per share.

That would be a 48.3% total return, or a 10.4% annualized return over the next 4.0 years.

Our Valuation Assumptions

TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.

Here’s what we used for TotalEnergies SE stock:

1. Revenue Growth: -2.0%

While sales fell 10.7% last year, revenue grew 2.1% over the past five years, and -0.8% over the past decade, reflecting periods of declining commodity prices and minimal volume growth.

This company’s top line is increasingly supported by LNG and power sales in addition to traditional oil and gas production. The business is structured to generate strong cash flow across cycles by focusing on low-cost upstream assets and long-term LNG contracts, while also adding incremental growth from renewables and electricity.

Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we used a -2.0% revenue growth forecast, which assumes minimal and likely downside normalization in energy prices.

2. Operating Margins: 13.7%

TotalEnergies has delivered attractive profitability, with operating margins of 14.7% over the last year and a five‑year average of 9.9% as it improved portfolio quality and maintained cost discipline.

High‑margin upstream and LNG operations, combined with efficient refining and marketing, support solid margins even when prices are volatile. As the company scales higher‑return projects and optimizes its integrated LNG and power value chain, margin resilience should remain a key strength.

Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we forecast 13.7% operating margins, reflecting the impact of slightly softer commodity prices offset by continued portfolio high‑grading, cost control, and growing contributions from LNG and integrated power.

3. Exit P/E Multiple: 7.8x

TTE currently trades at a P/E multiple of 8.7x, compared with its five‑year average of 7.4x and ten‑year average of 10.2x, which is typical for a global integrated energy major with cyclical earnings.

The valuation reflects both the strength of its cash flows and investor caution around long‑term oil and gas demand and the pace of the energy transition. The company’s clear capital‑return policy and progress in building a balanced multi‑energy portfolio could help support a stable, mid‑single‑digit earnings multiple over time.

Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we apply a 7.8x exit multiple, slightly below the current level, to incorporate some conservatism around commodity cycles while still recognizing TotalEnergies’ strong balance sheet, disciplined investment, and growing low‑carbon exposure.

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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?

Different scenarios for TTE stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on commodity prices, LNG and power demand, and execution on capital allocation (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):

• Low Case: Slower demand growth or weaker pricing → 4.7% annual returns
• Mid Case: Balanced commodity environment and steady LNG and power expansion → 10.4% annual returns
• High Case: Stronger‑than‑expected prices and faster scaling of low‑carbon businesses → 15.0% annual returns

Even in the conservative case, TTE stock offers attractive returns supported by its diversified energy portfolio, low‑cost upstream assets, and commitment to dividends and buybacks. The company’s ability to generate robust IRRs across scenarios highlights the resilience of its integrated model and its progress in repositioning for the energy transition.

See what analysts think about TTE stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>

How Much Upside Does TotalEnergies SE Stock Have From Here?

With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.

All it takes is three simple inputs:

1. Revenue Growth
2. Operating Margins
3. Exit P/E Multiple

If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.

From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!