Key Takeaways:
- Crédit Agricole is a diversified European banking group combining retail banking, asset management, insurance, and investment banking, with leading positions across France and key international markets.
- ACA stock could reasonably reach a higher fair value of €21 in the next 2 years, supported by steady revenue growth, resilient profitability, and a generous dividend that currently yields 6.8%.
- This implies the potential for an attractive total return from today’s price of €17, combining moderate price appreciation with high income over the next 2.0 years.
Crédit Agricole (ACA) is a universal banking group that serves individuals, SMEs, corporates, financial institutions, and public-sector clients across France, Italy, the rest of the EU, and globally. The bank operates through five major segments: Asset Gathering, Large Customers, Specialized Financial Services, French Retail Banking – LCL, and International Retail Banking.
This allows the bank to provide everything from traditional lending and deposits to insurance, asset management, and investment banking services.
The group’s scale and diversification underpin resilient earnings, with a last 5‑year EPS CAGR of 9.0% and a last 5‑year revenue CAGR of 6.2%, while maintaining a solid LTM ROE of 10.6% despite a conservative risk profile.
The stock has delivered a 28.9% price return over the previous year, and investors also benefit from a substantial 6.8% dividend yield, highlighting Crédit Agricole’s income appeal at current levels.
Here’s why Crédit Agricole stock could be attractive heading into 2026 as it leverages its diversified business model, benefits from a still-supportive rate environment, and continues to return capital to shareholders.
What the Model Says for Crédit Agricole Stock
We analyzed the upside potential for Crédit Agricole stock using valuation assumptions based on its historical earnings growth, current profitability, and analysts’ forward expectations for the business.
Based on estimates of 2.5% annual revenue growth, 44.7% operating margin, and a normalized P/E multiple of 7.2x, the model projects Crédit Agricole stock could generate north of 18% annual returns over the next 2 years.
That would be a meaningful total return, with a significant portion coming from the current 6.8% dividend yield, and the potential for double‑digit annualized returns if earnings growth and valuation trends prove favorable.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for Crédit Agricole S.A. stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 2.5%
Crédit Agricole’s top line has grown at a 5‑year revenue CAGR of 6.2%, supported by higher net interest income, expanding fee and commission income, and growth across its Asset Gathering, Large Customers, and International Retail Banking segments.
Fee-based activities, including asset management and insurance, have contributed to a more resilient revenue profile alongside traditional lending, while specialized financial services and corporate banking deepen client relationships and wallet share.
Management and analysts now expect a normalization phase, with a forward 1‑year revenue CAGR of 7.9% as the tailwind from rising rates fades and growth reverts toward more typical levels.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we used a 2.5% forecast, reflecting Crédit Agricole’s ability to modestly outgrow the 2.9% consensus through its diversified universal banking model and ongoing expansion in fee-generating businesses, while still staying below the strong 6.2% historical pace.
2. Operating margins: 44.7%
While traditional operating margin is less meaningful for banks, Crédit Agricole’s profitability can be assessed through returns on equity and asset efficiency. The group currently delivers 45.2% operating margins, underscoring solid profitability relative to its sizable balance sheet and regulatory capital requirements.
These returns are backed by the universal banking model, with scale advantages in French retail, strong bancassurance, and meaningful fee income from asset gathering and investment banking, which are less capital-intensive than pure lending.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we forecast 44.7% operating margin, assuming Crédit Agricole sustains double-digit returns on equity through a combination of disciplined risk management, cost control, and stable contributions from fee businesses, while absorbing normal credit-cycle and macro volatility.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 7.2x
Crédit Agricole stock currently trades at a NTM P/E of 7.75x, with a LTM P/E of 7.33x and LTM P/BV of 0.80x, signaling a discount to its book value and to many global banking peers despite its solid profitability metrics. The multiple reflects persistent investor caution toward European banks’ exposure to interest-rate changes, regulatory uncertainty, and credit risk, even as ACA’s earnings profile has remained relatively resilient.
At the same time, the bank offers an attractive 6.8% dividend yield, meaning a significant portion of investor return is delivered via income rather than multiple expansion. As Crédit Agricole continues to post 9.0% last 5‑year EPS CAGR alongside double-digit ROE, there is capacity for the market to gradually narrow the discount to book value.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we maintain a 7.2x exit multiple, roughly in line with the current NTM P/E as Crédit Agricole’s consistent 9.1%+ ROE, solid capital position, and high dividend yield remain intact through the forecast period.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for ORA stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on execution on cost savings, growth in Africa & the Middle East, and the stability of competitive dynamics in core European markets (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Net interest margins compress faster than expected, fee businesses grow slower, and credit costs trend higher than historical norms → 3.7% annual returns
- Mid Case: Revenue grows broadly in line with the 2.9% forward revenue CAGR and 3.8% forward EPS CAGR, profitability remains solid with ROE around 9.1%+, and the stock continues to trade near today’s NTM P/E of 7.2x → 9.1% annual returns
- High Case: Rates remain supportive, fee and asset‑gathering businesses outperform, and Crédit Agricole’s execution sustains high‑single‑digit EPS growth with a gradual re‑rating toward or above its 0.80x LTM P/BV → 13.2% annual returns
Even in the conservative case, ACA stock can still offer positive returns supported by Crédit Agricole’s diversified revenue mix, long operating history (founded in 1894), and strong competitive positions across its core markets.
ACA Stock Valuation Model (TIKR)
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How Much Upside Does Crédit Agricole Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
