Key Takeaways for Fair Isaac Stock as of August 2026
- Earnings Plunge: Fair Isaac stock sank 16% on July 30, its steepest one-day drop since 2020, after FY26 guidance rose to $2.53B in revenue and $42.43 in non-GAAP EPS but still missed Street estimates of $2.55B and $43.18.
- Street Split: Analysts carry 10 buys, 5 outperforms, 5 holds, and 1 sell on Fair Isaac stock.
- Model Gap: TIKR’s mid case model prices Fair Isaac stock at $2,074, implying a 78% total return and 15% annualized gain through September 2030.
- Target Cuts: The Street’s mean target on the stock has fallen from $2,197 in June 2025 to $1,476 today, and Mizuho cut its own target to $1,344 from $1,494 on August 4.
Why Fair Isaac Stock Still Hasn’t Shaken Off Its Worst Drop Since 2020
Fair Isaac (FICO) stock fell 16% on July 30 to close near $1,152, its steepest single session since 2020, after the company raised full-year guidance to $2.53 billion in revenue and $42.43 in non-GAAP earnings per share. Analysts had modeled $2.55 billion and $43.18, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. A raise that still missed the bar cost Fair Isaac stock more in one day than most of its previous five years combined.
The mechanics trace back to mortgage volume, not pricing. CFO Steve Weber told analysts on the Q3 earnings call that origination scores growth slowed because the underlying market did, not because FICO lost share: “As rates tick up, the volumes do slow down… it’s really just about the slowdown in the mortgage market as rates crept up.” That single sentence explains why a 26% jump in third-quarter Scores revenue still produced a guidance raise the Street judged too small.
Mortgage originations made up 71% of the segment’s B2B revenue that quarter, so a rate-driven volume slowdown hits the number the market watches most. Fair Isaac stock has now fallen 36% since June 2025, a decline the market is pricing as a structural reset in growth expectations rather than a one-quarter miss.
That reset shows up in the multiple, not just the price. FICO’s NTM price-to-normalized-earnings ratio fell from 56x in June 2025 to 23x now, with nearly all of the compression finished by March 2026 and the multiple holding in the 23x to 24x range for two straight quarters since. A multiple that stopped falling before the July report suggests the market had already repriced the growth slowdown, and the 16% drop reflects a fresh disappointment landing on an already-reset valuation rather than a re-rating still underway.
Mizuho’s August Cut Shows the Street Still Adjusting to FICO Stock’s New Reality
On August 4, Mizuho trimmed its price target on Fair Isaac stock to $1,344 from $1,494, one of the more visible moves in a wave of post-earnings revisions. Coming five days after the plunge, the cut signaled that part of the sell side views the lower growth trajectory as durable rather than a one-time overreaction. That’s the tension the rest of the Street still has to resolve.
Fair Isaac Stock’s Target Keeps Falling, But the Gap to Price Never Closes
Ten buys, five outperforms, five holds, and one sell make up the current call on Fair Isaac stock, spread across 19 analysts publishing price targets. Their mean sits at $1,476, 27% above the $1,166 close, a gap the Street built gradually rather than declared in one move.
That mean target has fallen in every stretch since June 2025, when it stood at $2,197 against a $1,828 close. It held near $2,023 through December, slid to $1,899 by March 2026, then to $1,529 in June and $1,476 now.
The price fell faster and further over the same window, from $1,828 down to $1,068 in March before climbing back to $1,166. That mismatch pushed the target-to-price gap as wide as 78% in March, when the stock fell before analyst models caught up, and it has since narrowed to the current 27% as the price stabilized through the summer.
TIKR Prices Fair Isaac Stock at $2,074, Far Above the Street’s $1,476
TIKR’s mid case model values Fair Isaac stock at $2,074, implying a 78% total return from the current price of $1,166, or 15% annualized over the next 4.1 years.
A 78% total return over roughly four years places Fair Isaac stock well ahead of what mature, high-margin data and analytics names typically offer from current prices.
The gap between TIKR’s target and the Street’s $1,476 mean comes down to timing more than disagreement on the business. The model looks past the mortgage rate cycle that just cost Fair Isaac stock 16% in a day toward a Scores franchise still raising prices and a Software segment where platform revenue has overtaken legacy for the first time. It also captures upside the Street has yet to fully underwrite, including FICO Score 10T adoption across 70 lenders representing 55% of top mortgage originator volume and the direct license program still awaiting final GSE certification.
Should You Invest in Fair Isaac Corporation?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
