Tesla Stock Slips Following Capital Spending Forecast Reduction

Aditya Raghunath • 4 minute read
Reviewed by: David Hanson
Last updated Oct 26, 2026

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Key Stats for Tesla Stock

  • Price change for Tesla stock in last 6 months: -2%
  • $TSLA Stock Price as of Oct. 23: $372
  • 52-Week High: $499
  • $TSLA Stock Price Target: $408

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What Happened?

Tesla (TSLA) shares fell 2% on Thursday as the company had cut its 2026 capital spending forecast a day earlier. It now expects about $20 billion, down from more than $25 billion.

Tesla spent far less than expected on AI and robotics in Q3, which led to a surprise positive free cash flow.

The company did not say which areas will see lower spending. Leadership said it is managing capital deployment efficiently.

Investors who back Elon Musk’s AI and robotics plans did not like the cut. Josh Gilbert, an analyst at eToro, said a bigger budget is welcome if returns follow.

A smaller one can hint at slower growth, and he said the shares went nowhere on a result that beat on most measures.

Tesla stock is down about 15% this year, and the Nasdaq is up roughly 15%. Tesla also trades at 188.24 times forward earnings, while Ford trades at 6.58 and General Motors at 5.16.

TSLA Stock Revenue, EBIT and Free Cash Flow Estimates in Billion USD (TIKR)

There is a merger angle too.

Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees to discuss a possible combination, which could create a company worth about $3.5 trillion.

Russ Mould of AJ Bell warned that Tesla may enter a period of limbo while investors wait for news. He also said regulators could be a hurdle.

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What the Market Is Telling Us About Tesla Stock

Tesla stock is priced for big things from Cybercab and Optimus. Any sign of less spending raises questions about those plans.

Management gave context on the Q3 call. Free cash flow was over $1.5 billion, while cash and investments were over $45 billion.

Tesla also secured the ability to borrow up to $30 billion, but does not plan to draw on it this year.

Executives said spending will keep rising in the next few years. They pointed to more Robotaxi cars, Optimus capacity, solar manufacturing, compute, and a chip fab.

So the 2026 cut looks like timing, not a change in direction.

TSLA Stock Valuation Model (TIKR)

Demand looks strong as deliveries topped 480,000 for a second straight quarter.

Automotive margin, excluding credits, rose to 18.1%, while management also said Robotaxi miles grew 8x in the quarter.

Still, Tesla stock carries a high price tag. Anyone watching Tesla stock should follow the SpaceX merger talks and how spending ramps in 2027.

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So what is Tesla stock actually worth?

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!

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