Key Stats for Tesla Stock
- Past-6-Month Performance: 15%
- 52-Week Range: $214 to $499
- Valuation Model Target Price: $748
- Implied Upside: 79%
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What Happened?
Tesla stock is up about 15% over the last 6 months, rising from roughly $352 to about $405 per share as investors responded to improving margins, record energy growth, and accelerating autonomy deployment.
The advance reflects renewed confidence that earnings stability is returning while large-scale AI and Robotaxi initiatives move closer to commercialization in 2026.
The stock strengthened after Tesla delivered clear profitability improvement and stronger energy growth in its Q4 2025 earnings report, easing concerns about margin compression.
CFO Vaibhav Taneja reported total gross margin of 20.1% and automotive margins excluding credits improving from 15.4% to 17.9% despite 16% lower deliveries, signaling better cost control and mix improvement.
The company also generated $1.4 billion in free cash flow even after more than $500 million of tariff headwinds, while full-year energy revenue reached nearly $12.8 billion, growing 26.6% year over year and driving record energy gross profit.
Management further reinforced the long-term growth narrative by confirming Model S and X production will end next quarter to convert Fremont capacity into an Optimus factory targeting 1 million robots per year, FSD adoption climbed to nearly 1.1 million paid customers, and unsupervised Robotaxi rides are now carrying paying riders in Austin.
Institutional positioning has been active. Avalon Trust boosted its stake by 332.6% to 2,864 shares worth about $1.27 million, Stevens Capital increased its position by 1,288.5% to 38,434 shares valued at about $17.09 million, and Princeton Capital raised its holdings by 28.8% to 8,325 shares worth about $3.70 million.
Alliance Wealth Advisors lifted its stake by 28.9% to 10,532 shares worth $4.68 million, and Kovitz Investment Group increased its position 7.7% to 157,409 shares valued at about $70.0 million.
At the same time, Vestmark Advisory cut its stake by 40.6%, Sigma Planning trimmed 25.6%, Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management reduced 44.9%, and Bowen Hanes sold 99.2% of its holdings, as institutional ownership remains elevated at about 66.2% of outstanding shares.
With shares trading near the midpoint of their $214 to $499 52-week range, the past six months reflect a market increasingly rewarding margin recovery, energy scaling, and tangible autonomy progress while positioning for a heavy 2026 investment cycle centered on AI chips, Cybercab production, and Optimus expansion rather than short-term vehicle volume alone.
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Is Tesla Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 14.2%
- Operating Margins: 10.2%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 162x
Revenue is projected to expand from about $121 billion in 2027 toward roughly $270 billion by 2030, reflecting accelerating vehicle production, scaling energy storage deployments, and increased software monetization rather than simple price increases.
Margin expansion toward 10% assumes improved factory utilization, continued battery cost reductions, and a higher mix of Full Self-Driving software and energy revenue, both of which carry structurally higher margins than automotive hardware alone.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $748, implying about 79% total upside from current levels near $405, suggesting the stock appears undervalued under these assumptions.
Energy storage deployment and autonomy monetization represent the most important business drivers in 2026.
Megapack backlog conversion, subscription-based FSD adoption, and expansion of paid Robotaxi service across additional cities would increase revenue per vehicle and improve capital efficiency without proportional manufacturing growth.
At current levels, Tesla appears undervalued if it can execute on margin expansion, scale energy storage profitably, and translate autonomy into recurring high-margin revenue.
Sustained execution across energy, AI, and robotics remains the key determinant of whether shares can approach the model’s upside scenario.
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