Key Stats for Take-Two Stock
- Past-Week Performance: +0.01%
- 52-Week Range: $188.6 to $264.8
- Current Price: $
What Happened?
Take-Two (TTWO), the video game publisher behind Grand Theft Auto and NBA 2K, raised its full-year net bookings forecast to $6.65 billion to $6.70 billion on February 3, representing 18% growth and a $725 million increase above its initial May 2025 outlook, with shares at $211.50.
Q3 fiscal 2026 net bookings of $1.76 billion crushed the high end of guidance by over $160 million, driven by recurrent consumer spending, the recurring in-game purchases that generate predictable high-margin revenue, surging 23% against an 8% forecast across NBA 2K, GTA Online, and mobile titles.
Toon Blast, the mobile puzzle game owned by Zynga that Take-Two acquired in 2022, grew 43% year-over-year and crossed $3 billion in lifetime net bookings, anchoring a mobile segment that now comprises roughly 46% of total company net bookings and just delivered its strongest direct-to-consumer quarter on record.
Strauss Zelnick, Chairman and CEO, stated on the Q3 2026 earnings call that “we’re beyond thrilled with our expectations for next year, including WWE coming up this year and of course, NBA 2K and then most notably, GTA VI,” directly tied to the November 19 GTA VI release date with Rockstar marketing set to begin summer 2026.
With GTA VI launching November 19, WWE 2K26 dropping March 13, operating cash flow guidance raised to $450 million from $250 million, and a 3-year pipeline covering fiscal 2027 through fiscal 2029 set to be unveiled at the May earnings call, Take-Two is building toward what management expects will be record net bookings in fiscal 2027.
Wall Street’s Take on TTWO Stock
The February 3 guidance raise to $6.65 billion to $6.70 billion confirms the earnings engine is already accelerating before GTA VI, the open-world franchise behind 225 million GTA V units sold, ships on November 19.
Revenue is forecast to jump from $5.65 billion in fiscal 2025 to $6.69 billion in fiscal 2026, then surge to $9.23 billion in fiscal 2027, a 38% single-year leap driven entirely by GTA VI’s launch and the recurrent consumer spending it will generate.
The sharpest number in the model is fiscal 2027 EPS of $7.79, a 103.6% year-over-year increase from $3.83, as GTA VI monetization flows through with high-margin recurrent consumer spending, which already represents 78% of net bookings, scaling on top of an existing earnings base.
The Street is overwhelmingly positioned for this supercycle, with 24 buys, two outperforms, one hold, and one sell among 28 analysts, converging on a mean price target of $276.81, implying 30.9% upside from $211.50 before GTA VI ships a single unit.
The analyst range stretches from $165 to $300, where the floor reflects a GTA VI delay risk past November 19 and the ceiling prices in the full fiscal 2027 EPS doubling that the estimates currently project.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
TIKR’s mid-case model targets $376.37, implying 78% total return over 4.1 years at a 15.2% annualized IRR, built on a 12.5% revenue CAGR and net income margins recovering from 9.6% today to 19% by fiscal 2028. Both assumptions are already tracking: EBITDA margins expand from 13.4% in fiscal 2025 to a projected 21% in fiscal 2027 as GTA VI’s high-margin recurrent revenue scales.
The market prices TTWO at $211.50 against a fiscal 2027 EPS estimate of $7.79, implying the stock trades at roughly 27x next year’s earnings despite a 103.6% EPS growth year on the horizon.
Operating cash flow raised to $450 million from $250 million mid-cycle, before GTA VI ships, proves the earnings base entering the supercycle is structurally stronger than the fiscal 2024 trough of $2.81 EPS suggested.
Toon Blast crossing $3 billion in lifetime net bookings and mobile delivering its strongest direct-to-consumer quarter on record confirms the 46% of revenue outside Rockstar compounds independently, reducing single-title concentration risk in the TIKR model.
A GTA VI slip past November 19 eliminates the fiscal 2027 103.6% EPS growth estimate and collapses the revenue step from $6.69 billion to $9.23 billion, directly breaking the TIKR model’s net income margin recovery assumption.
The May 2026 Q4 earnings call delivers the first official fiscal 2027 guidance alongside the 3-year pipeline through fiscal 2029, making the initial net bookings figure the single number that confirms whether $376 is conservative or stretched.
Should You Invest in Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.?
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