Key Takeaways
- Debt-Funded Demand: SpaceX is seeking ~$40B in Apollo-led financing to buy Nvidia chips, the FT reported on October 6, as Nvidia stock closed at a record $239.
- Street Repricing: Analysts hold 48 buys, 10 outperforms, 2 holds, 2 no opinions, and 1 sell, with a $329 mean target sitting 37% above the close.
- Model Upside: TIKR’s mid-case model sees $587 by January 2031, a 145% total return.
SpaceX’s Proposed $40 Billion Debt Raise Tests Investor Appetite for Nvidia Chip Purchases
Nvidia (NVDA) stock closed at a record $239 on Tuesday, October 6, the same day a Financial Times report said SpaceX is seeking $40 billion in Apollo-led financing to buy Nvidia chips.
The reported package pairs $10 billion of bank loans with $30 billion of investment-grade debt. The proposed structure would bring outside lenders into funding Nvidia chip purchases. But the final terms would determine how much risk those lenders—and Nvidia—actually bear.
CEO Jensen Huang previewed this shift while defending Nvidia’s customer financing at Goldman Sachs’ tech conference on September 10: “We’re moving NVIDIA compute from technology to an investable asset.” Bond buyers absorbing $30 billion of SpaceX debt for Nvidia racks would prove his point at scale.
And the demand lands on a capped book. Nvidia guided fiscal 2028 revenue growth of 70% because of supply limits, while customer forecasts call for growth to double. Outside financing could help customers fund purchases, but the 70% outlook remains a supply-constrained forecast, not a guaranteed revenue floor or a measure of credit risk.
Analysts Have Lifted Nvidia Stock Targets 50% While the Price Rose 28%
Nvidia stock carries 48 buys, 10 outperforms, 2 holds, 2 no opinions, and 1 sell. Fifty-nine analysts publish price targets, and their $329 mean sits 37% above the $239 close.
The gap widened from the target side. On October 26, 2025, the stock closed at $186 against a $219 mean. Since then the mean has climbed 50% while the price gained 28%, and the low target jumped from $100 to $180. The Street keeps raising the bar faster than the stock clears it.
My NVDA Model Lands at $587 With Growth Cut to 25.1%
I ran TIKR’s mid case with revenue growing 25.1% a year, a 53.4% net income margin, EPS growth of 24.4% a year, and the P/E shrinking 3.3% a year. Over the last year, revenue grew 65.5% and the net margin ran at 56.9%. So the model assumes growth at well under half that pace and a slightly thinner margin.
I set growth there because Nvidia’s 70% outlook covers fiscal 2028 alone, and CFO Colette Kress expects supply to stay a bottleneck at least through the end of that year.
The model lands at $587 by January 31, 2031. That’s a 145.2% total return from the $239 close over 4.3 years, or 23.1% a year.
By my math, that’s roughly 2.5 times today’s price. The number to watch is the multiple: the P/E fell 25.8% over the last year even as EPS grew 59.5%, and the model has it shrinking just 3.3% a year.
Think 25.1% growth is too cautious for Nvidia? Swap in your own revenue, margin, and multiple assumptions. Build your NVDA model on TIKR for free →
So what is NVIDIA stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what NVDA stock could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Value NVIDIA Corporation for free→
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
