Key Takeaways
- SpaceX shares rose 11% today after third-quarter revenue jumped 161% to $14.6 billion and net income reached $4.4 billion.
- The results justify the move on their own: SpaceX’s AI segment brought in $7.56 billion of revenue, passed Starlink’s Connectivity segment and turned an operating profit.
- The AI buildout took $16.4 billion of capex in the quarter alone, more than SpaceX’s operations brought in over the first nine months of 2026, so the company is relying on its $89.9 billion of cash and marketable securities.
- Elon Musk said Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees to review a merger, with no terms yet, and Tesla reports its own quarter after today’s close.
SpaceX (SPCX) shares are up 11% this morning after a blowout third quarter. And Elon Musk gave investors one more thing to chew on: a possible merger with Tesla (TSLA).
AI just became SpaceX’s biggest business
Revenue rose 161% to $14.6 billion in the quarter ended Sept. 30, SpaceX reported after Tuesday’s close, and it swung to $4.4 billion of net income from a $1.1 billion loss a year earlier.
For the first time, Super Intelligence (SpaceX’s name for its AI segment, yes, I know it’s silly) led the way:
- SI revenue hit $7.56 billion, up from $813 million a year earlier.
- That passed Connectivity, home to Starlink, at $5.25 billion.
- SI turned a $431 million operating profit, from a $1.72 billion loss a year earlier.
New cloud services agreements, Grok adoption and August’s Cursor acquisition drove it.
Management guided to $33 billion to $37 billion of revenue for the first quarter of 2027 alone. Analysts already had revenue nearly tripling next year…
Four quarters at the guidance’s midpoint would top that $132 billion 2027 estimate, so I’d expect it to keep climbing. JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth already raised his price target to $500 from $240.
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Somebody has to pay for the compute
SI capex was $16.4 billion in the quarter alone. And capex has outrun SpaceX’s operating cash flow since 2024…
Over the first nine months of 2026, capex hit $48.1 billion against $13.1 billion of cash from operations. Starlink can’t fund that pace by itself, so June’s record IPO is doing the work: SpaceX ended September with $89.9 billion in cash and marketable securities.
Musk sees “a lot of merit” in Tesla
On the earnings call, Musk said both boards have formed special committees to look at a combination:
“I do think there’s a lot of merit to combining the companies as we are pretty much in the superintelligence singularity, and there’s a lot to be gained from cooperating.”
That’s a review, with no terms or timeline yet.
The quarter earns the jump
My take: the results justify this move on their own. AI went from losing money a year ago to SpaceX’s biggest business, and the IPO cash funds the buildout for now. I wouldn’t pay up for a Tesla deal until there are terms.
Of course, $33 billion to $37 billion is a big promise for one quarter. And Tesla reports after today’s close, so expect more merger questions there.
So what is SpaceX stock actually worth?
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