Key Takeaways
- Joby shares fell 49% over six months to $4.65, just above the 52-week low of $4.43.
- Blade drove Q2 revenue to $38.6 million, and Joby lifted full-year guidance to $115 million to $125 million.
- A $197 million adjusted EBITDA loss in Q2 dwarfs what the Resonant Sciences deal will add.
- Q3 results on November 4 should update second-half cash burn and conforming aircraft progress.
Not long ago, Joby Aviation (JOBY) was a pure bet on flying taxis. Today it sells passenger flights through Blade, is buying a defense business, and has a Toyota joint venture lined up to build its S4 aircraft.
But investors aren’t impressed. JOBY closed at $4.65 on Tuesday, down 49% over six months and just above its 52-week low of $4.43.
Executive stock sales, including by CEO JoeBen Bevirt, have added to the gloom. Results arrive November 4.
Blade pays some of the bills
Blade, the passenger flight service Joby owns, now drives most of its sales. Q2 revenue reached $38.6 million, up from $15 million a year earlier.
Blade’s seat volumes rose more than 50%, and management lifted full-year guidance to $115 million to $125 million.
That small base has room to grow fast…
Analysts expect revenue to grow about 100.4% a year over the next two years. Even so, the stock trades at 25.8x forward sales.
Defense is a profitable side door
Joby plans to buy Resonant Sciences for about $500 million, mostly in cash. The target has over $100 million of trailing revenue, grew about 40%, and runs at high-teens adjusted EBITDA margins.
“Resonant is a fast-growing business with strong visibility into future revenue,” CFO Rodrigo Brumana said when the deal was announced. It should close in the first half of 2027.
Yet the deal barely dents Joby’s losses…
Q2 adjusted EBITDA was a $197 million loss. At high-teens margins, Resonant would add less than $20 million a year.
TIKR tracks 11 analysts on Joby Aviation. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Joby Aviation, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Joby Aviation’s Analyst Ratings
The balance sheet is the clock
Joby lost $245 million under GAAP accounting in Q2. It expects to burn $385 million to $415 million of cash in the second half, and its lawsuit against rival Archer Aviation (ACHR) is still unresolved.
Cash, not revenue, decides how long Joby can wait for the FAA…
Joby held about $2.3 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of Q2, against $748 million of debt. Paying roughly $450 million for Resonant would use about a fifth of that cash.
My take: I like that Joby now has revenue beyond the air taxi. But the stock won’t recover on Blade seats alone. FAA certification progress is what can close the gap to the $10.01 average analyst target.
On November 4, look for second-half cash burn, conforming aircraft progress, and any Resonant update.
So what is Joby Aviation stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Joby Aviation could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
