Key Takeaways
- JPMorgan just raised its price target to $500 from $240, which implies 209% upside.
- Earnings estimates are rising fast enough to support a rebound, but JPMorgan’s target asks a lot more than the estimates do.
- Analysts’ 2027 EPS estimate has more than tripled in three months to $2.25, and $500 works out to 222x that figure.
- JPMorgan’s call is plausible but stretched, and the fourth-quarter report will show whether SpaceX reached its $100 billion revenue run-rate goal.
SpaceX (SPCX) is still down significantly from its June 16 high, even after a blowout third quarter. That didn’t stop JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth from more than doubling his price target on Oct. 21, to $500 from $240, implying 209% upside.
A rough first summer
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share on June 11 and peaked at $225.64 five days later.
By late July, worries about AI spending were hitting the whole sector, and investors were bracing for a lock-up that could free up as many as 911.5 million shares on Aug. 6.
JPMorgan is betting on a $28 trillion market
Revenue jumped 161% from a year earlier to $14.6 billion, and SpaceX swung to $4.4 billion of net income from a $1.1 billion loss. Management guided for $33 billion to $37 billion of revenue in the first quarter of 2027.
Anmuth, who kept his Overweight rating, looks well past next quarter. In his words, “no other company is as well positioned to go after the combined anticipated TAM of $28T+.”
On Tuesday’s call, CEO Elon Musk put SpaceX’s annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027 at “somewhere between $500 billion and $1 trillion.”
TIKR tracks 38 analysts on SpaceX. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on SpaceX, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See SpaceX’s Analyst Ratings
Does $500 add up?
The Street’s consensus target was $223 on Oct. 20, up from $188 on June 30…
That was before Wednesday’s raises, but $500 still sits above the Street’s high of $450, at more than double the consensus.
Analysts’ 2027 EPS estimate is $2.25, up from $0.65 three months ago, and they expect it to more than double in 2028, to $4.89…
With first-quarter revenue guided to more than double the third quarter’s, I’d expect those numbers to keep climbing.
Still, $500 works out to 222x that 2027 estimate and 102x the 2028 one, while the stock itself trades at ~70x 2027. And with four months of trading, there’s no history to measure them against.
$500 needs Musk’s version of 2027
The big risk is spending: capex hit $19.6 billion in the third quarter, and management expects $35 billion to $40 billion in the fourth.
My take: JPMorgan’s call is plausible but stretched. Rising estimates back a rebound, but paying 222x 2027 earnings only works if something like Musk’s half-trillion-dollar revenue run rate shows up.
The fourth-quarter report early next year will show whether SpaceX reached its goal of $100 billion of ARR by December. If it clears that easily, $500 starts to look a lot more reasonable.
So what is SpaceX stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what SpaceX could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
